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CNBC Arabia Survey: With the start of the new fiscal year in Egypt, what are the expectations for the path of the economy? | Latest news



CNBC Arabia Survey: With the start of the new fiscal year in Egypt, what are the expectations for the path of the economy?  |  Latest news

The world economy has been battling many crises for more than two years, from the corona epidemic to inflationary pressures and the war between Russia and Ukraine, and these effects are reflected in the Egyptian economy.

The effects of the current crisis in the economy were evident in the supply chain crisis and rising shipping costs, which prompted many central banks around the world, led by the Federal Reserve, to raise interest rates.

CNBC Arabia conducted a survey with 10 major investors and manufacturers in Egypt on their expectations for the course of the Egyptian economy for the next 2022/2023 financial year.

According to the survey, inflationary pressures on purchasing power and private sector activity are expected to pick up in the financial year starting next month.

Summary of investment risks … and expansion activities

Participants’ opinions differed on the risks of investing in current conditions. 60% of them – 6 respondents to the survey – saw higher risks due to the ambiguity of the scene and the intensity of geopolitical tensions.

Although 30% point out that the risks remain unchanged, they see the current situation as very bad, while one expects the risks to decrease in the next phase.

5 investors suggested a summary of the expansionary activities of the private sector, 4 of them expressed their optimism to increase the sector investments for the next financial year, while one participant expects the stability of investment activities compared to their current situation.

The Egyptian private sector continued its contraction for the 18th consecutive month as BMI data revealed that production and orders in Egypt were down less than 50 points – readers below 50 points indicate a contraction of the economy, while reading above 50 points indicates its growth – in May, it is trading activity and demand ” Indicates a sharp decline. “

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Confidence in the role of the Egyptian government in the private sector

As the Egyptian government prepares to strengthen its partnership with the private sector over the next few years, most representatives of the business community supported the success of the project, as 6 investors expected the private sector’s contribution to economic activity to increase to more than 30. % In the next financial year.

Two of the participants saw a decline in the share of the private sector in economic activity in Egypt, and two suggested that its stability should be 30%.

The government has set a target of 65 per cent in the next three years.

Mixed expectations for the growth of the Egyptian economy

Six participants in the survey expect the Egyptian economy to record more than 4% growth in the next financial year, while one participant expressed the expectation that growth will be less than this percentage, while three participants expressed high optimistic expectations, noting that the economy may be. Achieve record growth beyond the 5% barrier.

Egypt has set a growth target of 6.2% for the current fiscal year and 6.7% for the next 2022/2023.

Consumption rates are expected to decline

Most respondents to the CNBC Arabia survey – 70 percent – expect a decline in consumption rates and purchasing power as a result of rising prices and rising inflation.

Only two saw consumers moving towards increased purchases, while only one saw the stability of current rates.

Inflation in Egypt is currently at a 40-month high of 13.1% in Egyptian cities and 14.9% in the entire republic.

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We hope the war will end by the end of 2022

Eight investors expressed their optimism that the Russian-Ukrainian war would end by the end of 2022, considering the challenges posed by the freezing of several projects and the expansion of some of their businesses, two participants expected the current war to end in 2023. .

Split in the interest rate path

Five investors included in the survey expect interest rates to rise further in Egypt next year, while 4 expect it to fall, while only one finds interest rates stable under the current circumstances.

The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates at its last meeting, bringing the total number of interest rate hikes since the beginning of the year to 300 basis points, liberalizing the exchange rate and reducing the value of the pound by more than 18%.

Gold is the best safe haven for investment

As for the safe havens of investors who took part in the poll, Gold received 4 votes out of a total of 10, 3 of whom suggested investing in real estate and two preferred certificates and bank deposits, but one investor recommended investing in agriculture. Department.

Optimistic forecasts for Egyptian exports

Six investors expected an increase in Egyptian exports in the current year, but 3 of them saw their stability in last year’s levels, while only one suggested their decline.

After the Egyptian government recorded $ 32.340 billion by 2021, it aims to reach $ 100 billion in exports over the next five years.

Survey Participants:

1- Mohammad Faraj Amar .. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Faraj Allah Holding Group

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2- Honey Percy .. Chairman and Managing Director of Edida Food Industries and Chairman of the Export Council for the Food Industry

3- Muharram Helal..Chairman of the Supreme Holding Group, Federation of Investors Associations and Chairman of the Egyptian-Qatar Business Council

4- Khalid Abu Al-Makarem .. Chairman of Makareem Tex and Chairman of the Export Council for the Chemical Industries

5- Samir Araf .. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Al-Ahram Group for Security Organizations and Chairman of the Tenth Ramadan Investors Association

6- Majd Al-Din Al-Manzalawi .. Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Taiba Group for Engineering Industries and Chairman of the Business Council of the Chamber of Commerce

7- Walid Kamal L-Din .. Chairman of the Board of Directors for Insulation Materials of the Modern Company and Chairman of the Export Council for Construction Materials, Refractories and Metal Industries

8- Sheriff L. Sayyid .. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tredco and Chairman of the Export Council for Engineering Industries

9- Magdie Dolpa is the President of Cairo Cotton Clothes Company

10- Muhammad Junaidy .. Chairman of the Board of Directors of the GMC Group for Business and Business Investment

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Calls to freeze oil and gas investments threaten global growth



Calls to freeze oil and gas investments threaten global growth

The Bank of Japan is trying to contain the bond crisis despite upward pressure

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell slightly from the 10-year on Tuesday after a strong bid and the Bank of Japan pledged to buy bonds in the next session.

However, global yields are still rising, and the 10-year swap rate has hit a record high, indicating strong upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell a basis point to 0.760 percent — its highest level since September 2013 — in the session, after reaching 0.780 percent.

“The Bank of Japan is trying to contain high yields with emergency bond purchases, but there are still upward pressures,” said Takeshi Ishida, strategist at Resona Holdings. He added: “The issue now is when the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy, not whether or not it will.”

The 10-year interest rate swap rose to 0.9875 percent on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan said on Monday it would hold an unscheduled bond purchase on Wednesday and another on Friday after yields hit multi-year highs.

The order in the government bond auction was 3.93 times lower than the 4.02 times it was sold in last month’s auction. But the gap between the low and the average narrowed to 0.02 yen from 0.10 yen previously, indicating strong demand.

Keisuke Tsuruta, fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said the decision was supported by the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases. He added: “Although the Bank of Japan has widened the trading range for 10-year bond yields to give the market more flexibility, yield levels and auction results are determined by what the bank does.”

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Bids for the 10-year bond saw weak demand in the previous two months as investors were wary of buying bonds amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan would adjust its ultra-low interest rate policy.

On the other hand, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that any decision on currency market intervention would depend on volatility and not a specific level of the yen, with investors bracing for a possible move if the yen crosses the 150 yen level. against the dollar.

Suzuki said authorities were closely monitoring the currency market and were ready to respond, reiterating his warning against speculative activity as the yen nears the 150-yen level against the dollar in a year.

“Currency levels won’t be a deciding factor” on intervention, Suzuki said, “it’s volatility that matters.”

The foreign exchange market showed little reaction to Suzuki’s comments, although traders were watching to see what action Japanese authorities will take as the year approaches levels that prompted intervention a year ago. Speaking at a press conference, Suzuki added that “authorities are closely monitoring market movements… It is important that currencies move stably to reflect economic fundamentals.” “We will be fully prepared to respond.”

A weaker yen pushes up prices by raising import costs, while other factors, including the war in Ukraine and production cuts by oil-producing nations, are also weighing on cost-driven inflation, Suzuki said.

As for newly issued 10-year government bonds, which yielded 0.8 percent, the highest level in a decade, Suzuki said long-term interest rates are determined by the market, reflecting various factors.

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In general, higher long-term interest rates lead to higher borrowing costs, so officials are closely monitoring the impact of movements in long-term interest rates and how they may affect households and businesses, Suzuki said.

In a separate matter, the heads of finance authorities in South Korea and Japan agreed on Tuesday to resume periodic “spacecraft meetings” as part of their efforts to boost financial cooperation between the two countries, South Korean officials said.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency made the announcement in a joint statement after a meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday by Kim Joo-hyun, head of the Financial Services Commission in Seoul, and Teruhisa Kurita, commissioner of the Financial Services Agency in Tokyo.

The two groups will resume their regular meeting in Seoul on December 19-20 for the first time since 2016. During a meeting of the Korean and Japanese delegations on Tuesday, Kim and Kurita also agreed to exchange their experiences and ideas. Financial services of general importance, such as climate change and digitization.

Kim and Kurita discussed potential areas for deepening cooperation between the two groups to safeguard Korean-Japanese financial stability and strengthen the two countries’ financial markets.

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OPEC Secretary General: Lack of Oil Investments Threatens Energy Security



OPEC Secretary General: Lack of Oil Investments Threatens Energy Security

Oil prices rose 30 percent in the third quarter as supply shortages persisted

ABU DHABI, TOKYO – Reuters: A lack of investment is putting energy security at risk, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Haitham Al-Qais confirmed yesterday at the ADIPEC oil conference in Abu Dhabi. OPEC’s secretary-general added: “We call for continued investment in the oil and gas sector, and we believe calls to freeze investment will be counterproductive,” Reuters reported.
Al-Qais confirmed that OPEC is optimistic about oil demand.
In the middle of last month, the chief OPEC official warned against abandoning fossil fuels in his first response to the International Energy Agency’s latest reports.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Qais said that abandoning fossil fuels would “lead to energy chaos on an unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people around the world.”
Major international oil major BP said countries around the world should invest in oil and gas production to avoid a sharp rise in their prices, while accelerating the energy transition to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.
(ADIPEC 2023) is considered to be the largest event in the world’s energy and oil industry and is supported by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates and a group of partners. It is a platform for exchange of ideas and global debate. Challenges affecting energy markets and their effects on prices, including political challenges and international conflicts and their impact on energy supplies, provide a roadmap and future solutions to support and develop a sustainable, secure and low-cost energy system.
In turn, oil prices rose on Monday, recovering some of their losses from last Friday, as investors focused on global supply shortages and expectations of a last-minute deal to avoid a US government shutdown, which restored their appetite for risk. By 09:49 GMT, Brent crude futures for December delivery were up 54 cents, or 0.59%, at $92.74 a barrel, after falling 90 cents in last Friday’s session. Brent crude oil for November delivery was down seven cents at $95.31 a barrel when the contract closed last Friday.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.54%, at $91.28 a barrel, after falling 92 cents.
Both crudes rose nearly 30% in the third quarter, supported by expectations that oil supply shortfalls will widen in the fourth quarter after OPEC+ extended voluntary production cuts until the end of the year.

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Emirates News Agency – “Kadem” mission showcases critical communications capabilities at Oman Defense, Security and Fire Expo



Emirates News Agency – “Kadem” mission showcases critical communications capabilities at Oman Defense, Security and Fire Expo

ABU DHABI, 2nd October, 2020 (WAM) – “Katem”, a subsidiary of EDGE Group and a leader in developing innovative and ultra-secure communication solutions, is participating in the Oman Defense, Security and Fire Exhibition 2023. Showcase an advanced portfolio of ultra-secure devices and network encryption solutions.

The international exhibition, to be held in Muscat on October 9 and 10, is an important forum for the critical communications sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the Middle East region in general.

During the event, the company will showcase its next-generation secure smartphone, which aims to offer advanced security features and capabilities to meet mission-critical needs.

Katam’s participation in the exhibition is a strategic move aimed at reaffirming its commitment to mission-critical sectors including emergency response, public safety and critical infrastructure protection. The company’s booth will showcase a range of ultra-secure devices, including KATIM X2, an ultra-secure 5G smartphone for government leaders, senior executives, emergency responders, individuals and teams handling sensitive information. and the KATIM R01, a rugged smartphone for critical communications in harsh field conditions.

KATIM will showcase its latest network encryption software, the KATIM Gateway 9011, which provides advanced post-quantum encryption for sensitive communications and data transmission to address increasing data interference during data transmission. Exhibitors can visit Katam at booth F10 to meet the company’s team and learn more about secure communications solutions for mission-critical operations.

Mustafa Badr al-Din / Ahmad al-Nu’imi

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