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Oil prices fall for the third day… Brent crude oil above 85 dollars

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Oil prices fall for the third day… Brent crude oil above 85 dollars

Oil prices fell during trade today, Thursday, October 12 (2023), amid fears of a slowdown in demand, posting a third consecutive day of losses.

During today’s session, oil markets were hit by a larger-than-expected increase in crude and gasoline inventories in the United States and declining supply concerns.

Yesterday, Wednesday, October 11, oil prices ended trading down 3% on the release of US expectations for demand in 2023 and 2024.

Oil price today

By 05:59 GMT (Makkah time 08:59 AM), Brent crude futures – for December 2023 delivery – were down 0.51% at $85.38 a barrel.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures – for November 2023 delivery – fell 0.68% to $82.92 a barrel, according to figures seen by the specialist energy site.

Both crude oil benchmarks rose more than $3.50 in late trading on Monday, amid growing concerns about a conflict for oil-rich regions. This affected oil prices, but they were lower in the Tuesday and Wednesday session.

The US Energy Administration raised its oil price forecasts in 2024, voluntarily cut production in Saudi Arabia, and upgraded estimates of US crude production in 2023.

The firm estimates that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude will reach $90.91 per barrel in 2024, up 9.2% from the September 2023 forecast of $83.22 per barrel.

Oil price analysis

U.S. crude stockpiles rose by about 12.9 million barrels, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday.

That was more than an increase of 500,000 barrels expected by analysts in a survey by the agency. Reuters.

An oil storage platform in Japan – Photo from Reuters

“American Petroleum Institute inventory numbers are unlikely to help sentiment this morning,” ING analysts said in a note to clients. “Lower refinery operating rates due to maintenance may have contributed to this rise.”

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The data showed gasoline inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels, a stark contrast to the 800,000-barrel decline expected by analysts, and continued concerns about slowing fuel demand in the United States.

“Fuel prices may be closer to consumers’ pain threshold than inflation-adjusted prices, as there are already signs that consumers have responded by reducing fuel use,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note to clients.

Markets await additional inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration scheduled for release at 03:00 PM GMT (6:00 PM Makkah Time).

Oil is required

Elsewhere, market concerns about the supply situation in the Middle East continued to ease; This has led to downward pressure on oil prices.

“Crude oil prices extended their losses amid signs that the impact of the war between Israel and Hamas on the oil market will be limited,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.

The ING analysts added: “The risk premium continues to be eroded with the ongoing conflict with Israel and Hamas.”

However; The US Energy Information Administration’s expectations of a further decline in global oil inventories in the second half of 2023 limited the weakness in oil prices.

The Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report that inventory declines are expected to keep global oil supplies below consumption, which is likely to boost oil prices.

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Economy

Analysis of Bitcoin Against the US Dollar Today: Bitcoin

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Analysis of Bitcoin Against the US Dollar Today: Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell early in Friday’s session but quickly reversed, showing renewed vitality. All indicators currently point to an upward trajectory, with the $45,000 level likely to be targeted in the near term. Current sentiment appears decidedly bullish, and any pullbacks in the market are likely to be closely watched for potential buying opportunities and value discovery.

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In this dynamic market, there is significant support at the $40,000 level, often referred to as the “market bottom.” Additionally, the 20-day moving average is in line with this level, which reinforces its importance. However, it is important to realize that Bitcoin’s defining characteristic is its volatility, a characteristic inherent not only to Bitcoin but to the wider cryptocurrency space.

A significant factor influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory is the relationship between US interest rates and the cryptocurrency. Interest rates show a negative relationship with Bitcoin, as low interest rates encourage investors to seek higher returns across the risk spectrum. Conversely, high interest rates may deter institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency market.

Also, investors are eyeing the potential launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the coming months. This development has sparked excitement in the cryptocurrency community, with ETFs representing a departure from Bitcoin’s original spirit. However, it highlights the growing interest in bridging the gap between traditional financial networks and the emerging cryptocurrency landscape.

It is important to note that although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still indicates an overbought position, this alone does not indicate a decline in Bitcoin’s price. On the other hand, this could indicate a period of consolidation as the market recalibrates and absorbs recent gains.

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Ultimately, the outlook for Bitcoin appears bleak, with the cryptocurrency poised for potential gains in the short term. The market’s inherent volatility is a hallmark, but investors are alert to spot opportunities within volatility. Bitcoin’s performance is closely intertwined with US interest rate dynamics and the evolving status of financial instruments such as bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), which are expected to continue to dominate the imagination of market participants. The cryptocurrency market is an interesting arena, offering both challenges and opportunities to those trading in its complexities.

Daily chart of Bitcoin against the US Dollar

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Economy

3 Asian countries control 72% of global chip industry, and US earmarks $260 billion to regain leadership

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3 Asian countries control 72% of global chip industry, and US earmarks $260 billion to regain leadership

About 70% of the total manufacturing capacity is located in South Korea, Taiwan and China, with the US in fifth place after Japan, which will have a 13% share in 2022, the semiconductor lobby body revealed.

In 1990 the United States accounted for 37% of production capacity, Europe another 44%, and Japan came in third with 19%. The latter was considered a semiconductor powerhouse in the 1980s, accounting for 51% of global chip sales in 1988.

The Biden administration passed the Chips and Science Act in August 2022, allocating about $280 billion to push the lagging domestic chip industry in terms of research and manufacturing to regain its leadership.

Although 200 mm wafers are still widely manufactured and used, the chart focuses on 300 mm wafers introduced in 2001, capable of holding more wafers and believed to be more cost-effective.

In 2022, the new standard and its predecessor showed similar production levels, but these numbers are expected to change significantly in the coming years.

By 2026, SEMI expects monthly volume of 9.6 million 300 mm wafers, while 200 mm wafer production will reach 7.7 million per month. In the last category, China leads in terms of production capacity, followed by Japan and Taiwan in second and third place respectively.

See also  Gold rises to 3-week high as dollar weakens
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Economy

Bitcoin is jumping around 10 percent on the week

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Bitcoin is jumping around 10 percent on the week

Bitcoin rallied strongly this week as the world’s number one cryptocurrency hit its all-time high, with a recovery in financial assets benefiting from the dollar’s decline.

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The prospect of an end to the Federal Reserve’s continuing monetary tightening cycle for more than a year and a half has contributed to a recovery in all financial assets, including major indices in global stock markets. Gold hit an all-time high after breaking above $2,100 an ounce, while Bitcoin rose to its highest level in 2023. This year has been one of the windiest years for the cryptocurrency as it ranks ninth. The largest assets by market value rose 166 percent to reach $860 billion.

Other reports, expectations of an end to the monetary tightening cycle, and expectations of an earlier-than-expected shift in monetary policy contributed to bitcoin’s gains. The latest expectations indicate the possibility of a rate cut in the US after the end of the first quarter of 2024, compared to previous expectations, which indicates the possibility of a rate cut at the beginning of the third quarter of the year. The most important factors fueling Bitcoin’s rise are reports of the imminent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) submitted to major investment firms and related US bodies.

On the other hand, this year has not been without negative news for cryptocurrencies, especially the sanctions faced by one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Finans, which admitted early last month that it had lied in some of the allegations against it. US and private authorities were fined approximately $4.3 billion for anti-money laundering crimes, while the exchange’s founder, Changpeng Zhao, pleaded guilty and announced his resignation as CEO. Financial transfer.

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Bitcoin rose 9.97% to register around $43,801 during this week’s trading. Meanwhile, Ethereum price rose 6.56% to reach $2,345.

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