Economy
Oil rises after OPEC report tackles fears of slowing demand
Price movements
By 14:45 GMT, Brent crude for January delivery was up 73 cents at $82.16 a barrel, down a dollar in early trade.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December was up 70 cents at $77.87 a barrel.
Although some crude losses were offset on Friday after Iraq expressed its support for production cuts implemented by the OPEC+ group, it fell nearly four percent on the week, posting its third straight week of losses for the first time since May.
OPEC said in a monthly report that oil market fundamentals remained strong and slightly raised expectations for global oil demand growth in 2023, sticking with higher expectations for 2024.
“OPEC’s monthly oil market report, while raising demand growth forecasts for this year, amplified negative sentiment on Chinese demand and left them unchanged for next year. Note.
Investors were worried after the US Energy Information Administration said last week that US crude oil production will rise slightly less than expected this year, while demand will ease.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, spoke about the reports released by the US Federal Reserve officials, hinting that monetary tightening is possible, adding, “The crude oil market is not expected to welcome this, as growth concerns resurface later. The latest data from China and the US.”
Weak economic data released last week from China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, raised fears of a slowdown in demand.
Chinese refiners requested smaller supplies for December from Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two biggest oil exporters, confirmed last week that they would voluntarily continue oil production cuts until the end of the year, as worries about demand and economic growth continue to cast a shadow over crude markets.
The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC and other allies including Russia, meets on November 26.
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Economy
EUR/USD Analysis Today: Euro Looking for Buyers
The Euro went back and forth during Thursday’s session, focusing on the 200-day EMA, an indicator that people sometimes focus on. At the same time, the market found itself testing the 1.0750 level, which had previously led to significant price volatility. Taking all factors into account, this situation highlights the situation where the Euro is preparing for a consolidation mode, which is waiting for an improvement in the US bond markets. Interest rates have played an important role in currency markets in recent times as traders discern the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy – whether it will ease or maintain a more conservative approach.
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Also, the recent decline in interest rates may indicate market expectations of an impending economic downturn, which tends to promote the safe-haven status of the US dollar. This dynamic manifests itself in increased demand for US bonds, which subsequently leads to lower yields and higher demand for the US dollar.
Further complicating the situation is the influx of capital into Europe, which is struggling with the problems of the Great Recession. Overall, prevailing landscape traders face short-term rallies, although support should remain in the intervention area. It’s worth noting that next Friday’s session will be important, as employment data could influence the central bank’s course of action, or at least the perception of what it may or may not do. The market will continue to ask a lot of questions about the EU, which will favor the US dollar. Additionally, if the world slips into a major recession, the US dollar is usually a safe haven for traders.
Ultimately, the Euro is going through a challenging environment right now and the 1.0850 level is one to watch as it struggles with various factors. A break of this level could indicate an upward trend, although the current momentum is insufficient to facilitate such a move. It’s conceivable that a significantly weaker employment report could give the markets the momentum they need to return to volatility and make this market move very quickly. However, as we approach the end of the year, this could mean a decrease in volume, making markets difficult to predict.
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Economy
Oil falls to lowest level in last 6 months
Oil prices fell to a six-month low on Thursday, driven by investor concerns about slowing energy demand in the United States and China at a time when U.S. production is near record highs.
Brent crude futures were down 25 cents at $74.05 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down four cents at $69.34, with both crudes hitting their lowest levels since late June.
John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil, said: “Demand from the biggest global oil importer (China) is under pressure on prices, especially with the continuation of record production by the largest producer, the US.”
U.S. production is at an all-time high of more than 13 million barrels per day, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
The Energy Information Administration said U.S. gasoline inventories rose 5.4 million barrels last week to 223.6 million barrels, more than five times the expected increase of one million barrels.
Concerns about the Chinese economy also limited oil price gains.
Chinese customs data showed crude oil imports fell 9 percent in November from a year ago due to higher inventory levels, weaker economic indicators and lower demand from independent refineries.
Although China’s total imports fell month-on-month, exports grew in November for the first time in six months, suggesting rising global trade flows could help the manufacturing sector.
Oil prices have fallen about ten percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC Plus group – which includes allies including Russia – announced a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year.
On Thursday, the biggest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, called on all OPEC Plus members to join a deal to cut production for the benefit of the global economy.
(Reuters)
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Economy
Gold rises as dollar weakens and U.S. jobs data expected by Reuters
By Harshit Verma
(Reuters) – As the dollar fell on Thursday, investors could look to U.S. jobs data released later this week for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates.
It was up 0.3 percent at $2,030.20 an ounce by 0748 GMT. US gold futures were at $2,047.10 an ounce.
It fell 0.3 percent against rival currencies, with gold prices lower for holders of other currencies, while the 10-year yield hit a three-month low.
U.S. data released this week showed signs of a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with job openings falling to their lowest level in two-and-a-half years in October, while private sector employment rose less than expected last month.
Investors await U.S. nonfarm payrolls data to be released on Friday before the Federal Reserve updates its economic forecasts and interest rates at its fiscal policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 12-13.
“There is a widespread expectation that non-farm payrolls will be lower,” said Nicholas Vrabel, head of global corporate markets at ABC Refinery.
According to CME Group’s FeedWatch service, 60 percent of traders expect interest rates to fall by March 2024. Low interest rates support gold, which does not generate income.
For other precious metals, it was $23.87 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.5 percent to $894.03. An ounce was up 0.7 percent at $950.42.
(Prepared by Noha Zakaria for Arabian Bulletin – Editing by Salma Najm)
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