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Predicting earthquakes…a French faith turned science



Predicting earthquakes…a French faith turned science

After the Turkish earthquake last February, the scientific community specializing in earthquakes responded to the man’s connection with the appearance of Dutch earthquake forecaster Frank Hoogrebets, who claimed to have predicted the quake days before it happened. The movement of celestial bodies and earthquakes, he said, “unscientific talk, close to fraud,” and asked, “Have any scientific studies been published by this man?” They refused and asked.

This time the situation seems to be different, as the prediction claims come from a scientific study by French researchers of Geology (the science that studies topics related to Earth’s size, shape, dimensions, interior, magnetic field and interior temperature) fame. The study, published last July in the journal “Science,” was well-known and highly influential, drawing a lot of attention immediately after it was published. It quickly disappeared after being criticized by senior researchers who questioned it. Its results emphasize that publishing it in a popular journal does not protect it from criticism.

Scientists have long searched for early signals that predict where earthquakes will strike (Shutterstock)

A half-century-old thirst

Before the scientific community began to investigate this further, it seemed like “hope” to quench the thirst for more than half a century, because for that long time scientists were looking for the early signals that earthquakes occur in minutes. , the French study said in its introduction that the signal can be tracked through movements recorded by GPS data hours or days before the Earth begins to vibrate, up to two hours before a major earthquake strikes. Nothing else.

What is scientifically proven is that it is impossible to predict an earthquake because there is no early sign of an earthquake until the ground actually starts shaking, but the authors of the study; In their study, researchers Quentin Beltieri and Jean-Mathieu Noquet from the University of Côte d’Azur in Guizus, France, analyzed 90 previous earthquakes, indicating that large earthquakes begin with a preliminary phase of slip. The earthquake itself occurs, and this is enough time for the authorities to issue a warning in the affected areas.

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How did they discover “sliding”?

During the study, the researchers analyzed a history of highly accurate GPS data that showed movement along the fault line 48 hours before 90 major earthquakes, and found a persistent signal that appeared long before an earthquake struck, giving authorities time to issue a warning. .

On average, the GPS stations’ horizontal motions accelerated significantly in the last two hours before the quake, in a direction consistent with slow fault slip near the final nucleation point, two French scientists say, suggesting signs of a major earthquake. 110 minutes after the earthquake.

To make sure their finding wasn’t a random event, they analyzed 100,000 48 hours of GPS data that didn’t end in major earthquakes.

Alleged signal GPS “noise data” (Shutterstock)

Noisy data

A few hours after the paper was published, researchers rushed to look at it, and its citation rates reached 38 thousand within 30 days, a very large rate, but there was no confidence in its results. It is in the interest of the research community to look at it and evaluate it.

Since Judith Hubbard, a researcher specializing in geosciences at Harvard University, and her collaborator Bradley published an article on the “substock” website, most of the assessments were in a negative direction. The researchers, and in their paper, said they used the same data provided by the French researchers and reanalyzed it to confirm their findings. Hubbard and Bradley’s efforts showed no initial drift within two hours and no clear signal to indicate it. An earthquake was imminent, and instead, they found that the hypothesized signal was just “noise data.” Received from the Global Positioning System, this is not a sign of an imminent earthquake. Noise data is “nonsensical extra information”.

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Hubbard reaffirmed in exclusive reports via email to Al-Jazeera Net that the signal attributed to the French study is nothing more than this kind of data, and that “prediction two hours or 5 minutes before an earthquake is very high. Useful, but doesn’t seem like it’s possible.”

A vast network of sensors (Shutterstock) will be developed to obtain the data sought by the French researchers.

Japanese denial

Aiko Tohada, a professor of geotechnical engineering at Japan’s Tokyo University, criticized the study from another point of view, and said in an exclusive emailed statement to Al-Jazeera that it “finds a signal to predict an earthquake.” occurs, and requires — if we consider the accuracy of the data reached by the researchers — monitoring.” Faults are precise candidates for earthquakes, and this is difficult to achieve on the ground.

Explaining what the Japanese professor went through, Sherif El-Hadi, head of the earthquake department at the National Institute for Astronomy and Geophysical Research in Egypt, said in telephone reports to Al-Jazeera Net, “to obtain the data requested by the French researchers.” It would require installing a vast network of GPS sensors along major faults that form the source of earthquakes beyond the economic capacity of most countries.

The “noisy data” Hubbard refers to is caused by the fact that current global positioning systems are not sensitive enough to detect warning signs when they occur, in addition to earthquakes that may come from unusual locations, he explained. In the 1992 earthquake in Egypt, it did not come from one of the famous faults, but from an unusual area called “Tahshur” in the Egyptian Giza Governorate.

French Defense

For his part, the French researcher, Quentin Peltieri, denied that his study and that of his colleague, Jean-Matthew Noquet, claimed to predict earthquakes, as its content implied.

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“We don’t claim in the study that our approach can be used to predict earthquakes. Our study only aims to highlight that faults begin to slide before large earthquakes occur, and we had to collect recorded data to monitor the signal. Before large earthquakes, the direction of expected displacement is projected, which we know in advance. Can not.”

He explained that the American researcher had gone as far as to assume that removing the common part of the global positioning system’s time series (what we call the common mode) would lead to signal disappearance, and they explained that common situation as such. Noisy data, which is an oversimplification.

So, despite geologists searching for a reliable method for decades, we cannot currently predict large earthquakes.

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5 thousand infections…a disease in the Red Sea terrorizing the citizens



5 thousand infections…a disease in the Red Sea terrorizing the citizens

In the Red Sea state of Sudan, following the recent outbreak of dengue fever, there is panic among adults and children, especially children, the elderly and pregnant women. Doctors Syndicate in the country revealed the number of victims. So far 3 to 5 thousand people have been affected by this disease.

Sirin Abdel Monim, a member of the Sudan Medical Syndicate, said that the number of dengue fever infections in Port Sudan, the capital of the Red Sea state, and in the state in general, was high, with the majority among children. , the elderly and pregnant women, “The number of infections in the Red Sea State is not less than three thousand to five thousand, and in Sudan there are about a thousand cases, most of them children.” The Arab World News Agency said:

A member of the doctors’ syndicate added, “About two thousand children have been infected with fever in Port Sudan city, and at least 600 of them have been confirmed to be infected with dengue fever.” It comes from medical sources and medical assistants. Several states in Sudan have warned of the risk of dengue and cholera outbreaks.

Dengue fever is spreading in Sudan

Last August, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees issued a statement expressing concern over the poor sanitary conditions in Sudan’s refugee camps, border entry points and temporary reception centers in neighboring countries.

Dengue fever has been spreading for more than 5 months in the fighting between the Sudanese army and rapid support forces on the fifteenth of April. Problems hindering the provision of services to patients until the outbreak of war.

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What does science say about “Carrot Claws”.. “Tik Tok Challenge”?



What does science say about “Carrot Claws”.. “Tik Tok Challenge”?

A beauty trend called “carrot tanning” is gaining popularity on the TikTok app. It claims that eating three carrots a day will give you a “natural tan”. What is the truth in this? Is it healthy?

Why does carrot affect skin tone?

Carotenoids are natural pigments that give fruits and vegetables their red, orange, and yellow colors.Scientific alert“.

Contains many carotenoids including lutein, lycopene, alpha carotene and beta carotene.

Beta-carotene is responsible for the orange color of carotene.

Once food containing beta-carotene is digested, special cells in the gut break it down into two molecules of retinol (also known as vitamin A).

Vitamin A is then used in many vital body functions such as vision, reproduction, immunity and growth.

The body regulates the conversion of beta-carotene to vitamin A based on what it needs.

Any excess beta-carotene is stored in the liver and adipose tissue, excreted through the feces, or removed through the sweat glands in the outer layer of the skin.

This can cause an orange “tanning” of the skin, which is medically known as “tanning”.Carotenoderma“.

Carotinoderma gives your skin a yellow/orange color that is different from the same color it turns from sunlight.

Tanning is concentrated on the palms, soles and smile lines near the nose.

Can carrots change skin color?

Eating large amounts of carrots for several days is unlikely to cause skin discoloration.

But there is evidence that caroteroderma appears when blood levels rise above 250-500 µg/dL.

“revealed”Previous course“Eating three kilograms of carrots a week, which is equivalent to about seven large carrots a day, causes changes in skin color.

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Other experts recommend that you eat at least ten carrots a day for at least a few weeks to see color changes, according to the website.Cleveland Clinic“.

Is there a risk?

There is some evidence for taking supplementsBeta caroteneIn high doses (20 mg or more per day) it increases the risk of lung cancer in cigarette smokers or smokers.

Hence, it is recommendedCancer CouncilAvoid high-dose beta-carotene supplements (more than 20 mg per day), especially if you smoke.

But it’s not about whole foods, so smokers should eat fruits and vegetables that contain beta-carotene.

And you can use food to look good without focusing on eating carrots.

Including lots of colorful vegetables in your diet, especially those rich in carotenoids, can promote a natural glow and smooth improvement in skin tone.

A variety of fresh vegetables provide a variety of nutrients, and some may lack in others.

Hence, it is important to follow a balanced diet that does not depend on one type of vegetable.

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For women… a device that tracks your fertility through sweat



For women… a device that tracks your fertility through sweat

Back pain is one of the most common medical problems in the world in general, and the most common in the United States. Anyone can suffer from back pain and almost everyone will suffer from back pain at some point in their life.

back pain

Back pain is the most common physical pain of all. Every day, about two percent of people are disabled by back pain, which makes them unable to perform daily tasks. In the United States alone, 80 to 90 percent of people suffer from back pain at some point in their lives.

Back pain can start mild and cause some discomfort, or it can become so bad that it interferes with normal life and can make you unable to go to work.

There are many possible causes of back pain, and it is wise to see a healthcare provider to find the cause and seek treatment instead of guessing and self-diagnosing. It may have common causes such as muscle cramps or an underlying condition such as kidney stones, a herniated disc or inflammation of the lining of the back.In women, the uterus.

Treatment varies depending on the cause and symptoms, and there are many factors involved. However, there are steps you can take to improve your health and reduce your chances of developing chronic or long-term back pain.

According to the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), back pain is the second most common reason for visits to health care providers (after the common cold).

Prof. Mohamed Melhem Arouz

Types of back pain

According to the Cleveland Clinic, back pain is classified by medical professionals in several ways. Depending on the location of the pain, you may describe back pain as: pain in the left, middle, upper, middle or lower back, or right side. Different types of pain may be identified by the health care provider, such as mild, moderate, or severe pain. The pain may be like a sharp stab or a specific ache.

Back pain can also be classified by how long it lasts. Back pain can last for a day, a few weeks, months, or a lifetime. It can be either an acute attack (in the form of a sudden and short attack, often associated with an injury) or chronic/persistent pain, meaning pain lasting between 3 and 6 months.

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Injury risk factors

Who is at risk for back pain? There are several factors that increase the risk of developing back pain, and they may include:

* Fitness level: Back pain is more common in people who are not physically fit. For example, weak back and abdominal muscles may not support the spine properly (core strength). Back pain can be exacerbated by prolonged inactivity (excessive) exercise.

* Weight gain: A diet high in calories and fat, combined with an inactive lifestyle, can lead to obesity, which can put more strain on the back.

*Work-related risk factors: Jobs that involve lifting, pushing, pulling or twisting heavy objects can lead to back injury. A desk job can also play a role, especially if you have poor posture or sit in an uncomfortable chair all day.

* Stress condition: If you suffer from poor sleep, chronic depression or anxiety, back pain can be frequent and severe.

* Genetics: Genetics play a role in some disorders that cause back pain.

* Age: The older you get, the more likely you are to suffer from back pain, especially after the age of 45. A person is at high risk if:

– He doesn’t exercise.

– You already have arthritis or a type of cancer.

– He is overweight.

– Lifts heavy objects using the back instead of the legs.

– He suffers from anxiety or depression.

– Smoking or using other tobacco products.

Local and diffuse pain

What causes back pain? Back pain can be localized, such as pain in the spine, muscles, and other tissues in the back, or diffuse, such as pain caused by a problem in an organ that radiates or feels like it is in the back. It contains Examples of both include:

* Localized back pain: The cause may be in the spine, for example:

Herniated disc or herniated nucleus pulposus (disc) – Degenerative spondylolisthesis – Intervertebral disc degeneration – Radiculopathy – Arthritis – Sacroiliac joint dysfunction – Intervertebral disc degeneration – Spinal stenosis – Spondylolisthesis – Muscle stiffness – Muscle stiffness – Muscle spasm / Muscle stiffness.

* Common back pain, for example: aneurysms of blood vessels, abdominal aortic aneurysms – appendicitis – cancer (very rare) – fibromyalgia and myofascial pain syndrome – infections (very rare) – cholecystitis – kidney infections and kidney stones – liver problems – inflammation of the pancreas – pelvis Inflammatory diseases (sexually transmitted diseases) – Perforated stomach ulcers – Urinary tract infections.

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* In women, common causes of back pain are: endometriosis – pregnancy – uterine fibroids.

* Among those assigned male at birth (AMAB), presenting with back pain may be due to testicular injury or torsion.

Slip disc

A herniated disc is one of the causes of back pain. What are its causes? And its symptoms? And treatment methods? Can it be avoided or prevented?

Professor Mohamed Melhem Arouz, senior consultant in neurosurgery, spine surgery and minimally invasive surgery and senior consultant in chronic pain management, spoke to “Your Health” and he initially provided a simple overview of the anatomy of the spine. Of the 33 vertebrae: 7 cervical vertebrae. That is, between each vertebra and the other, there is a cartilage called “disc”.

The function of this “disc” is to act as a cushion between the vertebrae, protecting the spine by absorbing shocks from it. Cartilage, or the disc, consists of a gelatinous substance surrounded by an outer fibrous belt that prevents the disc from moving or slipping out of place.

Causes of disc pain:

*Unspecified causes; This results in pain where:

– Lack of movement and weakness of trunk muscles.

– Muscle tension as a result of incorrect and excessive continuous loads.

– Long and long hours of sitting without movement (sitting in front of the computer), driving for long periods of time.

– Overweight and obesity.

– Hard physical labor on the one hand.

– Stress and stress such as stress in work and studies.

– Changes in pain perception and genetic predisposition.

– Family and financial problems, constant anxiety and self-doubt.

* Back pain due to identifiable physical causes, for example:

– Acute herniated disc.

– Vertebral fractures for various reasons, including: accidents – osteoporosis – metastases and tumors – infections – spinal canal stenosis (central, peripheral, lateral, central and peripheral).

– Inflammatory diseases of the spine.

– Inflammatory rheumatic diseases (Pekterov’s syndrome).

Nucleus pulposus herniation occurs at all ages and peaks between 40 and 50. 70 percent male and 30 percent female. waist; About 90 percent, cervical vertebrae about 10 percent, and thoracic vertebrae about one percent.

Symptoms and diagnosis

* Symptoms of Herniated Disc:

– Pain in back and lower back.

– Pain extending to knee and leg or forearm and hand with tingling, numbness, loss of sensation in leg or arm, or paralysis-like sensation. In advanced cases, there are problems with urination and excretion.

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* How is a herniated disc diagnosed?

Professor Muhammad Melhem Aras emphasizes the importance of arriving early and on time for the final diagnosis, which leads to a good outcome and gives the patient a greater chance to avoid further harm, and the diagnosis depends on:

– Medical history of the injured person and his family.

– Medical diagnosis.

– General examinations and blood tests.

– Radiography (computed tomography – magnetic resonance imaging).

– Nerve planning.

After diagnosing the disease, a treatment plan is drawn up, specifying that each patient needs his own treatment plan consistent with his symptoms and clinical and radiological status.

The fourth and fifth steps are usually the last resort when the patient is in critical condition due to paralysis, urinary incontinence, defecation problems, foot drop etc.

Herniated disc treatment

Treatment options for a herniated disc are divided into 5 categories:

* Conservative treatments, including: physical therapy – ultrasound therapy – electrotherapy – heat and cryotherapy – magnetic field therapy – swimming.

* Drug treatments, including: first-class analgesics (ibuprofen, Ticlac) – second-class analgesics with moderate morphine (tilidine, tramadol) – third-class analgesics with high concentrations of morphine.

* Minimal treatments without surgery:

– Injection of nerves and nerve roots directed through the CT system.

– Epidural directed injection (medullary membranes).

– Catheter directed to the affected disc.

– Endoscopic catheter directed to disc.

– Laser guided therapy (rays).

– Plasma guided therapy (PRP).

– Radiofrequency guided therapy (radio-frequency).

– Stem cell targeted therapy (under trial).

* Various micro surgeries.

* Final treatments for postoperative pain (final rate).


When should back pain be admitted to the emergency department?

When it happens:

– Sudden and severe pain.

– Pain with nausea, fever or vomiting and lack of bowel or urinary control.

– The pain is so severe that it interferes with daily activities.

The Cleveland Clinic offers the following advice: Back pain can be very frustrating and interfere with everyday life. But remember that there are many treatment options available to treat back pain and return to normal daily activities.

See your healthcare providers to discuss your options. They are here to help you.

* Community Medical Consultant

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