Global oil demand growth is expected to slow next year
OPEC’s estimates for 2024 are more optimistic than those of the Energy Information Administration and the Energy Information Administration
Estimates of slowdown in non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2024
The Energy Agency cuts oil demand estimates for the first time in 2023
Oil stocks rose in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in May
The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC have agreed on a slowdown in oil demand growth through 2024, but with a clear difference in the pace of increase on an annual basis, according to an analysis by the Energy Research Division of Vision. 3 large companies.
The newly released monthly reports of the 3 major companies for July 2023 showed growth in non-OPEC oil supply in the coming year, as major producers outside the OPEC+ alliance seek to meet cuts planned by the alliance, but at a slower pace than the current year (2023) estimate.
In 2023, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil demand growth for the first time this year, while the Energy Information Administration and OPEC have shown higher-than-expected growth in China’s consumption in recent months. to Energy Research Division.
Oil demand projections to 2024
can be expected International Energy Agency Total global oil demand is projected to increase to 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024, with China accounting for 16.8 million, up from 16.2 million in 2023.
The Energy Agency raised its expectations that global oil consumption will increase by about 300,000 barrels per day over the next year, bringing demand up by 1.15 million barrels per day to a total of 103.2 million.
This means a slowdown in oil demand growth compared to the expected pace for the current year, even after it is cut by 220,000 barrels per day, which could reach 2.2 million barrels per day due to economic interventions, the energy agency indicated. Its monthly report.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its estimates for oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.64 million barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 1.70 million barrels per day, pushing the total to 102.80 million barrels per day.
This year, the Energy Information Administration estimates oil demand growth of 1.76 million barrels per day, an upward revision from the previous estimate of 1.59 million barrels per day.
The following graphic – produced by the Energy Research Division – tracks expectations for oil demand growth in major economies through 2024, according to OPEC:
In its first estimate for next year, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day to a new record high of 104.25 million barrels per day, attributed to strong global economic growth coupled with China’s continued recovery. Action after recovery from corona virus.
OPEC expects oil demand in China to grow to 16.35 million bpd in 2024, up from 15.77 million bpd this year.
In 2023, OPEC raised its forecast for global demand growth to 2.44 million bpd, up 90,000 bpd from the June 2023 report forecast.
World oil supply
The International Energy Agency expects non-OPEC oil supplies to increase by 1.18 million barrels per day over the next year, to 68.51 million barrels per day.
The increase would be the same as expected in global oil supply, which would push it to a new record of 102.8 million barrels per day, with all the growth coming from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance.
It comes in light of the OPEC+ alliance’s agreement to extend its policy of cutting output by two million barrels a day until the end of next year, in addition to voluntary cuts by nine countries in the Saudi-led alliance. and Russia.
In 2023, the International Energy Agency expects non-OPEC oil supplies to increase by about 1.8 million barrels per day to 67.3 million, according to a report tracking the Energy Research Unit.
On the other hand, the US Energy Information Administration expects non-OPEC oil supply to increase by 0.96 million barrels per day next year, bringing the total to 68.62 million, a clear decrease from the current year’s (2023) growth estimates. 1.97 million barrels per day.
As for OPEC, estimates of the growth of oil supply from outside the organization were more optimistic, estimated at 1.39 million barrels per day, which is expected to reach a total of 68.53 million.
OPEC expects oil supplies from outside to increase by 1.41 million barrels per day this year, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 1.43 million.
The following graphic—produced by the Energy Research Division—reviews OPEC’s expectations for changes in oil-liquids production in some countries by 2024.:
Global oil stocks
Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries rose by 5.4 million barrels last May, bringing the total to 2.824 billion barrels, but they were about 92.2 million below the average over the past 5 years, according to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report.
The OPEC report showed that commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development increased by about 20.2 million barrels to reach 2.815 billion barrels in May 2023.
Global oil inventories were up 139 million barrels year-on-year, but about 101 million barrels lower than the 5-year average.
Total global oil stocks reached 2.838 billion barrels by the end of the second quarter of 2023, according to expectations from the US Energy Information Administration.
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As part of Meta’s Connect conference last Wednesday, Mark Zuckerberg revealed several creative AI features that will be useful for some content creators and influencers. For example, users will be able to use Meta’s AI technology, revealed as Emu. In the Instagram app.
Zuckerberg said Meta will begin rolling out these photo-editing and generative AI tools to Instagram “in about a month,” and Meta’s Emu technology will take seconds to generate images, Zuckerberg said during the Connect conference.
In addition to photo editing tools, Meta is already releasing AI stickers that use Emu and Llama 2 technology, and advanced applications of AI will soon appear in Meta apps in the form of chatbots or AI-powered assistants. Meta will begin testing the beta feature immediately.
Here’s a full rundown of the new AI features Meta brings to Instagram:
– New photo editing tools in the Instagram app:
Like many apps and generative AI filters that are ubiquitous on TikTok, Instagram is adopting its own generative AI tools. Users can also edit photos by “re-styling”, which changes the artistic style of the photo, similar to altering the photo. A watercolor, or “background,” that allows users to replace the background of the image with an illustration.
Any image edited using these tools “represents the use of artificial intelligence,” Mitta wrote in a blog post.
– AI-generated stickers for use in direct messages:
Instead of sticking with Instagram’s existing preloaded stickers or emojis, Meta is rolling out a new tool that lets users create unique stickers using AI. Meta wrote in his blog post that the feature will be rolling out to “select English users next month.”
AI stickers are also available in Instagram features like Live Messages and Stories, and other apps like WhatsApp, Messenger and Facebook’s Stories feature.
– Interactive AI bots – or characters:
In addition to its general AI assistant called “Meta AI,” Meta is working with celebrities and influencers to develop 28 AI chatbots. The first cast uses celebrities and popular influencers like Tom Brady and Kendall Jenner. MrBeast, LaurDIY, and Charli D. Amelio and the AI characters will have their own profiles on Instagram and Facebook.
– Creators will be able to build their own robots in the future:
“We’re building a platform to build AI that can help you do things or have fun,” Zuckerberg said. “The way it works is that people can interact with these AI systems across the entire product universe. .”
Zuckerberg pitched these AI bots as a potential way for creators to “engage” with their communities. The creator of these bots should be “authorized” and “directly controlled,” Meta wrote in a blog post. Already, many startups have released AI tools. Similar applications allow creators to create AI versions such as Afterparty or Render Media.
Economic data released today on Friday showed that the euro zone’s core inflation rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year this month, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting to assess. The consequences of an unprecedented campaign to raise interest rates throughout the past.
European statistics agency Eurostat reported today that sales, excluding highly volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.5% this September, while analysts polled by Bloomberg News had expected a drop of 4.8%, compared with 5.3%. In the month, in the past.
At the same time, the headline inflation rate eased to 4.3% this month from 5.2% last August, the lowest level in nearly two years and well below expectations, thanks to a fall in energy prices. Accelerating rate of rise in prices of services.
The data released today is a strong indication that core inflation, a key measure for the central bank’s monetary policymakers, is on a downward path following a period of statistical deterioration over the summer months.
Despite the decline, general and core inflation rates have been more than twice the central bank’s target of 2% annually.
At the same time, there is a wide disparity in inflation rates between the euro zone’s twenty member states, with the inflation rate in Germany falling to its lowest level in two years this month, while the rate in Spain rose by more than 3. % again.
The current September consumer price inflation rate showed a new decline, reaching its lowest level in more than a year and a half, with the Italian statistics office saying the inflation rate fell to 5.3 for the current month. % y/y compared to 5.4% last month, while the core inflation rate, excluding highly volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.6% this month, down from 4.8% last month.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of MetaPlatforms, has introduced a group of new products powered by artificial intelligence, including smart glasses that can answer questions and broadcast live on Facebook, as well as “bot” programs to create images and an advanced headset for virtual reality. .
Zuckerberg described the products as bridging the virtual and real worlds, and asserted that low-cost or free artificial intelligence in what Meta offered could be integrated into daily routines.
The MetaQuest virtual reality headset is one of the most popular in the burgeoning virtual reality industry, and company executives described it as the best value in the industry, marking the imminent launch of an expensive headset from Apple.
Speaking from the central courtyard at Meta’s sprawling campus in Silicon Valley, Zuckerberg said Meta’s new generation of Ray-Ban smart glasses will launch on October 17 for $299.
The device will have a new assistant from Meta that works with artificial intelligence and will be able to live-stream what the user sees on Facebook and Instagram, a feat compared to the previous generation’s ability to take pictures.
Earlier during the presentation, Zuckerberg said that the latest mixed reality headset (Quest) will start rolling out on October 10.
Zuckerberg’s statements came at the MetaConnect conference, the social media company’s biggest event of the year and the first to be held in person since the start of the Covid pandemic.
It launched the first consumer-oriented generative artificial intelligence products, in which a chatbot (meta AI chatbot) can generate text responses and realistic images.
Zuckerberg emphasized: “It’s not just about answering inquiries. It’s about helping people do things for entertainment and interacting with the people around you.”
