A strengthening El Niño is raising the chances of UAE autumn rainfall in October and November, though the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) has cautioned that the phenomenon does not automatically produce extreme weather in the Emirates.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. US forecasters put the chance of the event reaching strong levels during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter at more than 90 per cent.
In a statement issued on 11 September, the NCM described this year’s El Niño as ‘very strong’ and characterised it as an indicator of beneficial rainfall, adding that such rainfall may occasionally be accompanied by heavy rain when suitable conditions develop locally.
What NOAA’s latest data shows on El Niño UAE autumn weather
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center puts the probability at 75 per cent that the current event will exceed the strength of every El Niño on record since 1950 during the October-to-December 2026 season, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.5°C or above.
The RONI replaced the older Oceanic Niño Index as NOAA’s official ENSO measure from 1 February 2026, following NOAA Coral Reef Watch guidance and National Weather Service Public Information Statement 26-05.
As of the CPC’s ENSO diagnostic update of 10 September 2026, the Niño 3.4 index stood at +2.2°C on a weekly basis and the eastern Pacific Niño 1+2 region recorded +3.9°C. The earlier report’s figure of +1.8°C for the Niño 3.4 index reflects a three-month running mean covering a slightly earlier averaging period, not a conflicting measurement.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 3°C, underlining how far conditions have moved from the long-term average.
What residents in the UAE should watch for
NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib said El Niño’s influence on the UAE was expected to become more noticeable as autumn advances. ‘From autumn, particularly in October and November, El Niño’s effect will be felt over our region. At present, during the summer season, its influence is stronger in East Asia than in West Asia,’ Habib said.
On rainfall specifically, Habib said: ‘In the UAE, this may increase the chances of rainfall (subject to local factors also).’
The NCM has dismissed viral social media claims warning of severe floods directly caused by El Niño, urging residents to follow official forecasts rather than circulating warnings. The authority confirmed it is monitoring regional and global weather patterns around the clock and will issue alerts when significant events are expected.
The WMO itself notes that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country. Other oceanic and atmospheric conditions can reinforce, weaken or alter its effects in any given region.
El Niño is arriving against an already elevated global temperature baseline. The Copernicus Climate Change Service recorded August 2026 as the joint-hottest month ever recorded across all calendar months, with a global-average surface air temperature of 16.96°C. That was 1.65°C above the estimated pre-industrial average and the first month above 1.5°C since November 2025. Average sea-surface temperatures across the extra-polar ocean also set a new August record in that month, at 21.07°C, according to Copernicus surface temperature data.
WMO officials have said 2027 has the potential to be the warmest year on record, as a temperature ‘pulse’ typically follows a major El Niño event, according to Reuters reporting on the WMO announcement.
For UAE residents, the practical guidance from the NCM remains straightforward: El Niño raises the background probability of rainfall this autumn, but local weather systems determine whether storms or heavy rain actually develop. The NCM’s next forecast updates for October and November will indicate whether those conditions are materialising.
