The language of “investments” and economics have become so characteristic of the growing relationship between Ankara and Abu Dhabi that the two countries have, for more than a year, tended to thaw the ice that had built up between them over the years.
Although signs of this scenario prevailed in the months leading up to the Turkish election, it imposed a new climate in the days following Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in a third presidential term, at a time of many changes in Ankara’s foreign policy.
Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed was the first Arab leader to visit Turkey after Erdogan’s victory, while Abu Dhabi was the first destination for Turkish Vice President Sevdet Yilmaz and newly appointed Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek.
Last week, according to media close to the Turkish government, the two Turkish officials discussed with the Emirati president and Abu Dhabi bilateral relations and several files, which included “investments” estimated at 30 to 40 billion dollars.
On Monday, Handy Firat, a writer close to the government, said in Ankara that Erdogan wanted to go to Abu Dhabi after the blessed Eid al-Adha, and that the move would “end up signing many agreements, especially in the field.” Energy and Defense Industries.”
The writer next talked about “Emirati steps to Turkey” and the first set of long-term investments include renewable energy, transportation (ports, airports, infrastructure) and reconstruction work in earthquake-hit areas. Last February sixth.
The editor’s report in “Hurriyet” indicated that other sectors will follow the first batch of direct Emirati investments, especially defense industries and that they will not be “short-term portfolio flows”.
One of the advantages of the agreements concluded between Turkey and the United Arab Emirates is that it is the largest and most comprehensive investment made from a single source over the years.
“These investments in Turkey will strengthen the relationship between the two countries by going beyond the limits of trust and meeting the demand for piloted drones,” the author says.
“Stage Title”
Relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi have been strained since mid-2017 to early 2021 after other countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, boycotted Ankara’s close ally Qatar.
However, relations between the two countries saw a significant improvement after the visit of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in November 2021, during which he disclosed investments worth $10 billion in Turkey.
This is the first visit by a senior Emirati official to Turkey since 2012.
In February last year, the Turkish president visited the United Arab Emirates, his first visit to the Gulf country in nearly nine years, after the return of warm relations between the two regional powers, which differed among many files in the region.
Since the first signs of a new relationship between the two countries began, the language of economics has dominated the scene more than the political trend that has fueled tensions in the past.
Mahmoud Allush, a researcher on Turkish affairs, believes that “the growing economic partnership between Ankara and Abu Dhabi is a result of the increasing warmth in relations after their reform.”
Alloush told Al-Hurrah, “Erdogan’s first foreign trip to the United Arab Emirates marked his dependence on Abu Dhabi and the Gulf countries in general to bring in investments and receive financial support in the face of economic turmoil. The country and the lira.”
Erdogan’s new economic team puts the country’s inflationary crisis next on its agenda.
Turkey has been suffering from high inflation rates for months, and in the period following Erdogan’s victory, the value of the Turkish lira fell to a record low, breaking the 26 barrier against the US dollar as markets opened on Monday.
“The UAE has become a major lender to Turkish banks, and this is indicative of the role it is playing in helping the Turkish banking sector weather the current turmoil,” Alloush said.
And “as the prospects for improving relations with the West seem very bleak, the chances of attracting Western investment back to Turkey are weak, so Erdogan is betting on Gulf investments first,” says Allosh.
And Emirati political analyst Raad Al-Shalal said that “the UAE has had a singular and bold policy in its decision-making since the establishment of the federation until now” and “it has no policy under the table”. , rather everything is on the table.”
Al-Shalal believes that “economics is the backbone of every international relationship. If relations are good along this path, it will lead to a good political relationship.”
He added, “The UAE’s objectives are concrete, based on achieving economic stability, which leads to stability and key political understandings.”
Therefore, Al-Shalal believes that “the economic partnership between Ankara and Abu Dhabi will lead to political understandings, and this will lead to something bigger in the future.”
What is behind the change?
In early March, Abu Dhabi and Ankara signed a “comprehensive economic partnership” agreement, and the Gulf nation said it would double the volume of bilateral trade to $40-45 billion over the next five years.
Turkey’s ambassador to Abu Dhabi, Doğe Tuncer, mentioned the above in early June, he said that the volume of non-oil trade between Turkey and the UAE was about 19 billion dollars in 2022, in light of the two countries’ efforts to increase the amount to 40 billion dollars within 5 years.
UAE Minister of Economy Abdullah bin Duq Al-Marri added that Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit to Turkey a few weeks ago opened the door to a new phase of comprehensive strategic relations and partnership.
“With the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the two countries, a promising future full of trade, economic and investment opportunities awaits us,” Al-Mari added.
Emiratis see “increasing importance in consolidating a new relationship with Turkey,” says researcher Allosh.
He explains, “Turkey is important not only because of its promising market and its important role in the global trade movement, but also because of its active role in geopolitics and the policies of the Middle East and Africa, as well as its importance in the field of defense industries.”
And “just as the Emiratis used their economic power as a catalyst to mend relations with Turkey, they are now using this power to deepen a new geopolitical partnership with Ankara in the region.”
The researcher adds, “It actually helps to emerge as a strong and active regional player in the region’s politics.”
Al-Shalal, a political analyst, opines that “the UAE is a source of global trust even with its enemies,” and he imagines that “Turkey’s economic and political relationship with Abu Dhabi will be better than that of its former allies.”
“Erdogan knows that the UAE and its leadership are honest and sincere in their position and that some of his allies are inconsistent,” he added.
All major partnerships and agreements between the UAE and Turkey are “very likely” in the coming days.
In analyst Rath Al-Shalal’s view, “The Turkish president knows that what made the UAE accept Clear Skies is a long-term and strategic goal. That is, the economic and political stability of the region.”
“The Turkish-Emirati transition is part of a larger-scale regional expansion process imposed by circumstances and needs on all active powers in the region.”
Researcher Allosh continues, “The changes the region has witnessed over the past two years are reshaping the regional structure.”
According to Abu Dhabi, the rapprochement with Turkey is “part of a precautionary approach to a new regional situation in which the United States is no longer an important partner, especially in security areas important to the Gulf region.”
The researcher believes that this is a “collaboration based on mutual benefit”.
UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, Thani Al-Siodi, said in a statement to the “Bloomberg” agency last March that the UAE is betting on Turkey as a country that opens the door to new markets through its logistics and supply chains. .”
The minister stressed that the UAE wants to benefit from huge Turkish investments in the industrial sector, its professional workforce and its logistics network, especially with Africa.
The government is working to finalize trade deals with India and Israel, the minister said, expecting the deal with Turkey to be announced in the coming months.
According to “Bloomberg”, the Gulf state is trying to establish its position as an international center in the world of business and finance, especially to attract business and investments from its neighbor Saudi Arabia.
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