After a month and a half, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to close a deal to fill and operate the Renaissance Dam under construction by Addis Ababa within four months. A round of talks between the two countries began on Sunday, amid questions about its seriousness and whether it would yield positive results for both sides, as the end of the fourth phase of the dam-filling project neared.
Since 2011, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been negotiating to reach an agreement on filling and operating the Renaissance Dam, but long rounds of negotiations between the three countries have yet to yield an agreement.
Abdul Shakur Hassan, an Ethiopian expert on African affairs, said in his interview with Al-Hurrah that in the past ten years, “very positive results have been achieved regarding the mobilization and operation of the Renaissance Dam. The remaining minor technical problems do not exceed ten percent.”
But Hasan, who thinks that what is happening in the negotiations is a routine thing, said, “We will complete the filling phase of the fourth dam within two days.”
As for Mohamed Abdel Wahed, a former major general and an expert on African security, he told Al-Hurrah website in an interview, “Since the beginning of the negotiations, the parties have not been able to reach a solution or a conclusion. The negotiations have had positive results, but at the same time he believes, “All parties are now a bond. They are keen to sign the agreement.”
Egypt fears the impact of the Addis Ababa dam on the Blue Nile, as it relies on the Nile for 97% of its water needs.
A statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said, “A new round of negotiations on the Renaissance Dam began in Cairo on Sunday morning, with the participation of negotiating representatives from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.”
Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Swelem was quoted as saying that the talks aimed to reach an agreement “taking into account the interests and concerns of the three countries”. In this regard.”
Al-Sisi and Abiy Ahmed agreed on July 13 to complete the contract to fill and operate the dam within four months.
“Confirmations”
Hassan told Al-Hura: “What remains is political decision-making on the technical aspects, which is happening now by meeting experts and technicians from the three countries involved,” noting that the talks are coming under the auspices of the United Arab Emirates. .
Hassan feels that Addis Ababa warranted the start of the current round of negotiations, “For example, this year the construction level of the middle corridor of the Renaissance Dam should be increased to 625 meters, through which the water passes during floods, but we increased it to 620 meters and reduced it by five meters, which I consider a good goal. , the height is projected to reach approximately 675 meters in the next year.
For his part, Abdel Wahed emphasized that Egypt is keen to reach a legal agreement on Ethiopia regarding the filling, operation and management of the dam.
“Collective Management” .. “Impossible”
Abdel Wahed said, “Egypt previously declared that it is not interested in building dams, but with the condition that there should be joint management in a way that does not affect the downstream countries. Therefore, we are interested in reaching a legal agreement that will oblige the parties. , especially Ethiopia, with the participation of Egypt, drought and prolonged drought. About the times.” “.
But Hassan responded that it was impossible for Ethiopia to accept joint management of the dam, saying, “Ethiopia has moved towards, because Egypt and Sudan have refused from the beginning to build, finance and manage the dam, so we consider that we have closed the matter. Construction and implementation with its own capabilities.”
On the other hand, Abdel Wahed emphasizes, “We need to set rules so that there is no shortage of water at the ecological or social level or at the high dam. When these things are regulated, everyone benefits.”
He added, “The agreement has not yet been developed, but Egypt and Sudan are contributors to the operational process, opening and closing reservoirs and dealing with prolonged periods of drought are very sensitive issues.”
Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation warned last Tuesday that his country is approaching a water shortage, roughly 500 cubic meters per person per year.
Mohidin Omar, a water affairs expert at the International Center for Agricultural Research in Drylands (ICARDA), told Al-Hurrah that Egypt’s resources are almost 55.5% from the water of the Nile River. billion cubic meters per year, the rest is rain or water, lakes are a very small percentage because rainwater is only one billion cubic meters per year.
“What has happened in the past years confirms Ethiopia’s repeated declarations of its intention not to harm any of the subordinate countries, in the absence of any harm to Egypt,” Hassan opined.
However, Omar confirms that there is still no clear knowledge of the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt, but he says, “There will definitely be a negative impact.”
He said, “The direct impact of the Renaissance Dam will not appear in its early years because there is a reserve that we can rely on to cover the water needs of farmers, but undoubtedly, the Renaissance Dam will reduce the amount of water coming to Lake Nasser, which is Egypt’s strategic reserve, but we don’t know when this will happen.” Don’t know.” Perfect result.
For his part, former Water Resources Minister Mahmoud Abu Zaid told Al-Hurrah that the situation would become more dangerous during what he called a “prolonged drought”. There will be less flooding.”
He explained, “The effect at that time will be related to the behavior of the drought years on the Ethiopian side, and they will control the passage of water and reduce what reaches us and for what period.”
But Ethiopian researcher Jamal Bashir told the “Al-Hurrah” website, “Ethiopia will not play the water card because it will be the first to suffer. Drought”.
Hassan said, “There is an understanding between the three countries on the coordination and management of the dam during times of drought and prolonged drought. There may be an understanding between the three countries on sharing the damage at this time, but it should be there. Ethiopia rejects Egyptian management of the dam and considers it a special sovereign status.” ”
In February 2022, Ethiopia officially started generating electricity from the dam, the largest in Africa. Its production target has been revised from 6,500 to 5,000 MW, more than double Ethiopia’s current production, and it is expected to reach its full production capacity by 2024.
hope
In light of the two parties sticking to their positions, Hassan says: “I believe that if there is political will from both parties, an agreement can be reached. Although we are on the verge of achieving our goals from the dam, we can stop at this point and we are ready to make the negotiations successful until we finish in Ethiopia.” From this load drains the power of the three countries in the media and what involves the mobilization of local and regional public opinion. .
He added, “I think Egypt will also be interested in this matter to reach an agreement, and we hope that the mediators will contribute to the success of this round.”
For his part, Abdel Wahed says: “I am confident that progress will be made in the negotiation process and that we will reach a compromise between the parties so that the downstream countries are not harmed.”
He added, “I imagine that the Ethiopian side will show great flexibility in the coming period to market the investment in the dam, because none of the parties will accept investments in the controversial dam, especially Egypt as one of the main countries in the region.”
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