Oil prices fell in early trade – today, Friday – to continue losses that began after producers in the OPEC Plus alliance agreed to voluntarily cut crude output in the first quarter of next year.

Brent crude futures for February were down 0.4% at $80.5 a barrel by 7:34 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 0.3% at $75.7.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of the OPEC Plus group – which pump more than 40% of global oil – have agreed to voluntary production cuts of more than two million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024.

However, at least 1.3 million barrels per day of these cuts come from voluntary cuts already implemented by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Representatives earlier said new additional cuts of up to two million barrels per day were under discussion.

OPEC Plus production – comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia – reflects a cut of about 5 million barrels a day aimed at actually supporting prices and reaching the market by about 43 million barrels a day. Stability.

Discount details

In a statement after the meeting, OPEC said the cuts totaled 2.2 million barrels per day from eight producers.

The figure includes Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day.

The additional cut of 900,000 barrels per day pledged on Thursday comes from 200,000 barrels per day of fuel exports from Russia and the remaining 6 members, Reuters reported.

The United Arab Emirates said it agreed to cut output by 163,000 barrels per day, while Iraq announced an additional 220,000 barrels per day cut in the first quarter.

Algeria plans to voluntarily cut its oil production by 51,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, while Kuwait announced it will voluntarily cut oil production by 135,000 barrels per day for 3 months from next January.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Algeria were among producers who said the cuts would be phased out after the first quarter if market conditions allowed.

Fears

OPEC Plus’ focus on cutting production comes in light of a slump in prices that hit $98 a barrel at the end of September, as well as growing concerns about weak economic growth in 2024 and expectations of a surplus in supplies.

This month, the International Energy Agency predicted a slowdown in demand growth in 2024, as “the last phase of the economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic dissipates and energy efficiency, the expansion of electric vehicles and structural factors combine.”

Member of Brazil

OPEC Plus invited Brazil to become a member of the group, and the Brazilian energy minister said he hoped to join next January.

Brazil is one of the world’s 10 largest oil producers and, as of 2016, the largest producer in Latin America.

Brazil’s crude oil production reached a record level of 3.7 million barrels per day last September, an increase of approximately 17% from the same month last year and a 6.1% increase from August 2023, according to “Argus Media”.

UBS analyst Giovanni Stonovo said, “Brazil is a big oil producer and a leader in crude production growth, so it’s important to get involved, but it doesn’t seem to be cutting production like Mexico, so it’s going to be good. OPEC Plus, and less important for the oil market.” “, according to Agence France-Presse reports.

The OPEC Plus alliance was formed in late 2016, when Russia and nine other countries joined OPEC to support lower oil prices, and from late 2022, the alliance relies on production cuts of about 5 million barrels per day.

Rolls-Royce’s transformation program is accelerating as the British Aerospace Group has been hit hard by the pandemic and problems with its Trent 1000 engines.

One of the company’s latest pledges is to add £2 billion in operating profit by 2027, which is estimated to be four times the £0.65 billion it announced in 2022. But this method seems more reliable than previous attempts.

The project hinges on Rolls-Royce’s aviation and aerospace division, the largest of its three divisions by revenue, as it accounts for 45% of the group’s total revenue of £12.7 billion in 2022, while the defense and power generation divisions make up the rest, but civil aviation within the company The segment achieves operating margins of only 2.5% by 2022. The plan aims to increase this percentage to 15-17%. Projected increase in earnings before interest and taxes.

It seems possible. According to Nick Cunningham of Agency Partners, competitors such as Safran and General Electric have an 18 percent share of the sector. However, unlike Rolls-Royce, they benefit from making more margin engines for narrow body aircraft.

One reason for Rolls-Royce’s narrow margin is that it has priced its new engines higher as it tries to build market share in the wide-body aircraft sector. This happens when the company’s profits come from service and maintenance contracts.

A more rational approach is required. Rolls-Royce has achieved a fair amount of expansion; So they have to reduce the discount. At the same time, older aircraft fleets will require more servicing and maintenance, which will improve their revenue diversification.

Rolls-Royce has also indicated it wants to cut costs by between £400m and £500m and cut 2,500 jobs. Investors may view this with skepticism, as previous attempts to rein in the sprawling legacy of an expanding business have proven short-lived.

A positive factor is that new CEO Tufan Ergin Bilgic is strict. Also, the company had recently experienced a death, which allowed it to make the necessary cultural change.

Investors have increased the value of the stock by 80% in the past six months, hoping that Ergin Bilgic will be able to implement his plan. However, the group still trades at a discount of up to a quarter to rival Saffron based on 2025 earnings. If Ergin Bilgic achieves his goals, Rolls-Royce could fill the gap.

Two sources involved in the OPEC Plus talks told Reuters that the alliance of oil-producing nations had reached a consensus on crude output cuts.

A representative of the OPEC+ coalition talks told Reuters that the group’s meeting today, Thursday, to discuss production levels in 2024 focused on new cuts for the first quarter of no less than 1.3 barrels per day.

Another source said total production cuts could approach two million barrels per day based on the outcome of negotiations between members today.

Meanwhile, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Mohamed Argob told Reuters that the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday to discuss oil production levels in 2024 will reconvene before the end of the year.

He said Algeria had agreed to cut oil production by an additional 50,000 barrels per day next January.

In this context, a source told the OPEC Plus meeting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to cut production by one million barrels per day at the beginning of 2024, according to the terms of the group’s agreement, with Russia contributing to a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day. According to Reuters.

Other members of the producer alliance are also expected to offer additional discounts, the source added.

A meeting of the OPEC Plus Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee ended on Thursday without making recommendations on production levels for 2024, a representative told Reuters.

Two other representatives later confirmed that no recommendation had been made.

The group held its meeting ahead of the meeting of ministers of the OPEC Plus group of oil producing countries, which begins today on Thursday.

And in this situation, an OPEC Plus representative said on Thursday that Brazil is expected to join the alliance from January.

“OPEC Plus” includes the countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and producers outside it, led by Russia.