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Oil markets are leaning towards OPEC’s “optimism” rather than the Energy Agency’s “desperation”.



Oil markets are leaning towards OPEC’s “optimism” rather than the Energy Agency’s “desperation”.

Oil markets are leaning towards OPEC’s “optimism” rather than the Energy Agency’s “desperation”.

On Thursday, global oil markets saw positive moves following the simultaneous release of two reports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency.

At exactly 13:25, Brent crude was at $80.12 a barrel, up one cent from Wednesday’s close, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 10 cents at $76.65 a barrel.

OPEC remained optimistic about the outlook for global oil demand despite economic challenges, and raised its forecast for demand growth to 2023 with a slight slowdown next year, with China and India continuing to lead fuel consumption.

In its monthly report, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 from growth of 2.44 million barrels per day in 2023.

It raised its forecast for demand growth to 90,000 bpd in 2023 from last month’s report.

Demand growth is an indication of the potential strength of the oil market and forms part of the underlying backdrop for policy decisions taken by OPEC and its partners in OPEC Plus. Last June, the group extended production cuts to 2024 to support the market.

“In 2024, strong global economic growth, coupled with continued improvement in China, is expected to lead to an increase in oil consumption,” OPEC said in a statement. “OPEC’s proactive approach and production controls have added a great deal of stability to the global oil market, which is the basis for expecting a continuation of a strong oil market until 2024,” he pointed out.

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OPEC’s oil production rose by 91,000 barrels per day to 28.19 million barrels per day in June, led by Iran and Iraq, the report showed, despite production cuts promised by OPEC Plus.

Contrary to the optimism of “OPEC”, the view of the International Energy Organization is evident in its report on Thursday, which revised its outlook due to the global economic slowdown, expecting global demand for oil to reach 102.1 million barrels in 2023. per day.

While that’s a record high, the company said in its monthly report, “A major economic reversal, manifested by a growing slowdown in the manufacturing sector, prompted this year’s first revision of growth estimates for 2023. .”

The Paris-based firm added, “Global demand for oil is under severe environmental pressures due to the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many developed and developing countries over the past 12 months.”

Nevertheless, demand will be 2.2 million barrels higher than it was in 2022, as China is behind “70 percent of the total increase,” while demand from OECD countries (which will remain weak), however, is expected to slow to 1.1. million in 2024, according to the agency’s report.

In June, the International Energy Agency predicted for the first time a peak in global oil demand “by the end of the decade” due to reliance on the electric car.

Russian exports fell from 600,000 barrels per day in June to 7.3 million barrels, the lowest level “since March 2021”. Revenues associated with these exports also fell by about $1.5 billion to $11.8 billion, the IEA said, “close to half of their level a year ago.”

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• Stable Chinese demand

Notably, data from the General Administration of Customs in China supported OPEC’s view on demand growth, with the country’s crude oil imports on Thursday rising 45.3 percent year-on-year in June, posting the second-highest monthly figure. , amid an increase in refineries for cargoes despite sluggish domestic demand.

According to the data, total crude imports in June were 52.06 million tonnes or equivalent to 12.67 million barrels per day. The increase is significant compared to imports of 8.72 million barrels per day in June last year amid echoes of widespread shutdowns to combat “Covid-19” in the economy.

Imports also rose 4.58 percent from May, which recorded 12.11 million barrels per day, and continued to rise on a monthly basis.

Total imports in the first half stood at 282.07 million tonnes, up 11.7 percent from 252.52 million tonnes in the same period last year.

Refineries in eastern China’s Shandong ramped up operations amid authorities lifting restrictions on diluted bitumen imports at the end of June. But more broadly, inventories continue to rise on a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty.

China imported 10.39 million tonnes of natural gas in June, up 19.2 percent from 8.72 million tonnes a year earlier, as importers cut spot purchases as global LNG prices rose.

Total gas imports in the first half stood at 56.63 million tonnes, up 5.8 percent over the same period last year.

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Emirates News Agency – Standard & Poor’s to WAM: UAE economy expected to grow 3% in 2023 and 4% in 2024



Emirates News Agency – Standard & Poor’s to WAM: UAE economy expected to grow 3% in 2023 and 4% in 2024

From/ Rami Sami..

ABU DHABI, September 26 / WAM / Standard & Poor’s Credit Ratings Agency (S&P) expects the UAE economy to grow by 3% in 2023, with the pace of growth rising to around 4% in 2024, with the main support of the non-profit sector being oil.

Analysts at Standard & Poor’s reported to the Emirates news agency WAM that the UAE government has implemented a broad set of economic and social initiatives over the past few years that will lead to long-term growth.

S&P analysts expect the emirate’s tourism sector to continue to grow by supporting the country’s hosting of major events, which will help it achieve its target of increasing visitor numbers to 40 million by 2030, and the number of hotel rooms to reach 250,000. Same period.

Analysts expect the UAE banking sector to continue to show strong fundamentals, see continued improvement in profitability and surpass pre-pandemic “Covid-19” levels supported by rising interest rates, while the real estate sector in Dubai will show greater resilience. Stable house prices in light of demand is a strong one amid expectations.

S&P’s sovereign ratings analyst Trevor Cullinan said the UAE economy is expected to grow by around 3% this year, and we expect expansion in the non-oil sector to be strong, with broad-based growth in the services and industrial sectors.

The economy of the UAE is expected to grow by around 4% next year, he said, due to the continued growth of the oil sector and non-oil sector, with many sectors contributing significantly to the growth of the country’s economy. , particularly in oil and gas, wholesale, industrial and real estate. , construction, financial services and real estate.

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In line with the “We Emirates 2031” vision, he expected the economic momentum of the non-oil economy to be supported by the influx of expatriates and tourists, positive sentiments of investors and consumers, in addition to the private sector. Aimed at increasing the volume of trade and increasing the share of tourism in the GDP, through collaboration… among all government agencies and institutions and the private sector to advance the development process.

Trevor Cullinan, The UAE government has taken a broad set of business and social initiatives over the past few years, which will lead to long-term growth as initiatives for residential and business are expected to attract skilled workers. Social initiatives can help improve the country’s position in the Middle East.

He said the UAE’s initiatives included allowing 100% direct foreign ownership of more than 1,000 commercial and industrial activities, along with a “bankruptcy” law that eased and provided individuals with financial problems by restructuring their debts. State in the field of ease of doing business, opportunity to re-borrow on easy terms to improve competitiveness.

He explained that the UAE’s initiatives include new visas, expanding the criteria for obtaining a golden residence visa for a period of 10 years, launching a green residence visa for five years, and allowing investors and businessmen to apply for work visas. A sponsor or host is required, and the initiation of a multiple-entry tourist visa for a limited period of five years, in addition to tourist visas for family groups.

Cullinan said the UAE’s recent efforts to improve the UAE dirham-denominated yield curve through the introduction of treasury bonds and instruments denominated in the local currency will lead to the development of local capital markets and expand funding sources for UAE companies and banks. , noted that the implementation of the UAE corporate tax system will contribute to the diversification of government revenue. Apart from the oil sector, the implementation of this tax is another step towards modernizing the business environment in the UAE and aligning it with international standards.

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For her part, S&P’s corporate rating analyst Tatiana Leskova expected the expansion of the tourism sector to support greater economic growth in the UAE, with Dubai Emirate succeeding in attracting 14.7 million international visitors by 2022, a doubling. What was achieved in 2022? In 2021, the number of visitors indicated this year could reach a peak of 16.7 million visitors in 2019 in 2023, while the Emirate of Abu Dhabi attracted 4.1 million hotel guests in 2022, an increase of 24%. From 2021 onwards.

The tourism industry in the UAE is expected to continue to grow, supported by key events such as the United Arab Emirates Conference of the Parties to Climate Change (COP28). The goal is to increase the number of visitors to 40 million by 2030, with the number of hotel rooms expected to reach 250,000 in the same period.

He pointed out that the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai will lead the way in attracting business and tourism to the country, while other emirates such as Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah are working to develop tourism sectors, which will increase diversity. Tourism offers in the country, especially the Emirate of Sharjah is Arab and Islamic culture and a family destination, it is safe, the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah for its beautiful nature, recreational activities and authentic programs.

Tatiana Leskova expects the real estate sector in Dubai to show more flexibility with the expectation that house prices will stabilize in light of strong demand, noting that Dubai’s attraction for companies is evident in the increasing number of new business licenses.

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For his part, Dr. Said: Financial Institutions Ratings Analyst and Global Head of Islamic Finance at S&P, Muhammad Damak, said the banking sector in the UAE continues to show strong fundamentals, and profitability is expected to continue to improve and exceed pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. Banks’ interests also benefit from technological advances.

He expects the capitalization of the UAE banking system to maintain its strength and benefit from improved internal capital formation, with UAE banks continuing to enjoy good financial and liquidity conditions and a good net external asset position, which protects them from downside pressures. An increase in the cost of global liquidity.

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455 billion dirhams in capital and reserves of UAE banks at the end of July



455 billion dirhams in capital and reserves of UAE banks at the end of July

Total capital and reserves of banks operating in the country increased by about 48 billion dirhams or 11.8% year-on-year to reach 454.9 billion dirhams at the end of last July, compared to about 406.9 billion dirhams at the end of July 2022. .

The central bank said in its monthly report that banks’ total capital and reserves increased by about 6.14%, or the equivalent of 26.3 billion dirhams, in the first seven months of the year, compared to 428.6 billion dirhams at the end of December. Last year, it grew by 1.6% on a monthly basis, compared to 447.8 billion dirhams. One billion dirhams last June.

The central bank explained that banks’ capital and reserves do not include loans and secondary deposits, but they also include profits for the current year.

According to the central bank, national banks account for about 86.4% of the total capital and reserves of banks operating in the country, and their value reached 392.9 billion dirhams at the end of last July, an increase of 12% on a year-on-year basis. About 350.8 billion dirhams in July 2022.

The share of foreign banks reached 13.6% of the total capital and reserves of banks operating in the country, and their value reached 62 billion dirhams at the end of last June, an increase of about 10.5% compared to 56.1 billion on a year-on-year basis. Dirhams in July 2022.

The central bank pointed out that the capital and reserves of banks in the Emirate of Dubai reached 219.8 billion dirhams at the end of last July, a year-on-year growth of 12.9%. 200.2 billion dirhams, an annual increase of 10.8%, and capital and reserves of banks in other emirates reached about 34.9 billion dirhams, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. The capital and reserves of conventional banks in the country stood at about 380.8 billion dirhams at the end of last July, an increase of 12% year-on-year, while the capital and reserves of Islamic banks stood at about 74.1 billion dirhams. About 10.8% on annual basis.

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Arab countries account for 60% of global Islamic finance

Dr. Abdul Rahman bin Abdullah Al-Humaidi, Director General and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Arab Monetary Fund, said, “Arab countries make up 60% of the global Islamic finance sector, which is three. trillion dollars by the end of 2021.

Al-Humaidi added that he launched a distance learning course on “Accounting Standards for Islamic Financial Institutions” in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank. Element in keeping pace with this industry and its growth and development.

Setting accounting standards for Islamic financial institutions helps to support the development of the industry, achieve calibration and harmonization between Islamic financial practices among Arab countries or practices in Arab countries and international practices, and leads to transparency of accounting disclosure. , reliability and validity of financial statements, and simplify the work of companies. In view of the challenges faced by Islamic finance in the application of international accounting standards due to the uniqueness of its work.

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Russia uses Indian and Chinese tankers and violates “price ceiling” sanctions



Russia uses Indian and Chinese tankers and violates “price ceiling” sanctions

Russia uses Indian and Chinese tankers and violates “price ceiling” sanctions

Western reports on Monday expected Russia to achieve higher revenues from oil exports this year despite higher price ceilings imposed on it by the Group of Seven and the European Union in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

An analysis of shipping data cited by the Financial Times today shows that Russia now ships three-quarters of its oil abroad without Western insurance, one of the tools used by the G7 and the EU to impose a cap above $60 a barrel. .

Prices are rising, the report says, and Russian crude oil is no exception. Urals crude is currently trading at approximately $79 per barrel, while Aspo crude, a Far East blend, is trading at more than $88 per barrel.

This spring, the Financial Times cited data from the US firm Kpler which noted that Russia transports half of its oil exports without Western insurance, indicating that “Moscow has become more adept at avoiding price ceiling sanctions imposed by the G7”. on energy.

These high prices for Russian raw materials come amid repeated assurances from the US Treasury that the maximum price ceiling “worked as intended”.

US Treasury Undersecretary Wally Adeyemo said last June: “In just six months, the maximum price ceiling for Russian raw materials has contributed to a significant decline in Russian revenues, and contributed to a major turning point in the war.”

Last August, US Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Eric Van Nostrand said he was “confident that the price ceiling achieves the dual goals of curbing Russian revenues and helping to stabilize energy markets.”

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The Financial Times newspaper cited the Kiev School of Economics as estimating that this year, Russia’s revenue from oil exports will rise by $15 billion due to the breach of price ceilings set by the Group of Seven and the European Union.

Critics of the price ceiling have argued from the outset that implementing it would be challenging for Western countries and relatively easy for Russian companies to avoid.

In fact, Russian, Chinese, and Indian insurance companies intervened in the transport of Russian oil instead of large Western insurance companies, and what the media called the “dark fleet” tankers were built to ship Russian crude around the world without the participation of Western companies.

But despite all this, the sanctions regime has had a significant impact since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which Western reports estimate will cost Russia $100 billion in oil exports from February 2022, but the problems facing the oil industry in Russia are simply beyond that. Challenges Exports Domestic shortages of diesel fuel have forced the Kremlin to restrict fuel exports from the country.

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