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The 4 most important scenarios ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today



The 4 most important scenarios ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today

A few hours separate us from the start of the upcoming OPEC + meeting; In preparation for settling one of the most contentious files, this one: how the coalition is tightening its grip on oil markets amid some moves to rein in affairs in oil markets amid falling crude prices. .

Today, Sunday, June 4 (2023), as global oil production leaders prepare to meet, several scenarios are being raised for a possible escape from the current oil market crisis. including approving additional production cuts or officially replacing existing voluntary cuts by some coalition countries and any new ideas.

Yesterday, Saturday, the Alliance’s Ministerial Oversight Committee met ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting with the aim of charting the course of action expected from the Alliance to correct shaky market conditions. Discussions are underway to cut oil production by a million barrels per day, according to a company statement. Reuters.

The special energy platform reviews the 4 most important scenarios at the table of the coalition ministers, which will lead the meeting of Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Premiere: The Official Extra Cut

While participating in the Qatar Economic Forum, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman issued a warning to traders and manipulators in the oil markets. Alliance meeting.

Sources raised the possibility that the OPEC+ meeting would come out with an important and direct decision, an agreement to reduce crude oil production by one million barrels, in addition to the official cut agreed by the coalition in October 2022. It will be implemented in November and will continue till the end of December 2023.

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If the coalition agrees to this cut, the total reduction in OPEC+ production will be an official 3 million barrels per day, plus the 1.66 million barrels that some countries agreed to cut on a voluntary basis, totaling 4.66 million barrels from official and voluntary production cuts; According to statistics monitored by the Special Energy Platform, this is 4.5% of global production.

Informed sources believe crude oil prices fell to around $70 a barrel during last week’s trading as one of the most important reasons behind the idea of ​​further production cuts, especially after the US debt ceiling deal, Reuters reported, as crude oil posted weekly losses.

This trend was supported by Bob McNally, president of the US company Rapidan Energy, who, in a statement to the Special Energy Forum, said that OPEC + ministers want to extend their agreement and allow production cuts to take effect this month. , but if oil prices fall, another production cut is likely. Oil rose further over the weekend (week ending Friday, June 2).

At the same time, Chief Adviser on Foreign Policy and Energy Geopolitics, Omod Shukri, considered that if oil prices drop to $75 per barrel, it is possible to trigger discussions within OPEC + on adjusting production levels to manage the market. , the Alliance has historical decisions to reduce or increase production in response to a number of factors, including market conditions and supply and demand dynamics, in particular.

Second scenario: Making voluntary cuts official

According to experts, among the scenarios on the agenda of the OPEC + meeting, with the aim of assessing the market situation and limiting the rules and supply levels, some coalition countries will convert into official cuts in production. and request. To propagate the idea of ​​proportionally redistributing allocations to each country that supports the idea of ​​lowering the production ceiling.

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The following chart, prepared by the Special Energy Platform, shows the extent of voluntary reductions by the 9 countries in the OPEC+ alliance:

Paul Hygan, editor-in-chief of the “Petroleum Economist” site, said that it is clear that there is not much desire among the ministers hosting the OPEC + meeting to cut crude oil production more than it has already been cut. After the last short period after the last round of cuts. , illustrates the potential of turning voluntary cuts into a formal agreement to improve credibility and accountability.

Platform Editor "Petroleum Economist" Paul Higgan
Editor-in-chief of petroleum economist Paul Hicken

Third scenario: A new voluntary cut

Experts expected an agreement on a new voluntary reduction in crude oil production, led by Saudi Arabia, at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the move would not be isolated. That would require one of two things for a vote: repealing or revising the previous voluntary cuts, or converting the voluntary cuts that took effect last May into official cuts, and then agreement among some of the coalition’s member states on a new voluntary cut.

In both cases, a specific action is required that would cancel or formalize the previous decision voluntarily taken by the 9 OPEC+ countries.

In this context, Vandana Hari, founder of the “Vanda Intelligence” Center, hopes that the coalition may formalize voluntary cuts in its next meeting.

When asked about the possibility of Saudi Arabia pulling off a surprise by approving a new voluntary cut, Vandana said in a statement to the energy platform: “It is difficult to see the kingdom providing additional voluntary cuts on its own, especially when Russia is providing half of the cut, which it has promised to be 500,000 barrels.

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Fourth scenario: maintenance of the status quo

Although Vandana Hari has hinted at the possibility of an agreement to convert the voluntary cut into a formal one; Most of the vision they had was to stabilize the current situation and give the last result along with the previous results an opportunity to better influence the markets.

Center founder "Vanda Intelligence" Vandana Hari in energy markets
Vandana Hari, Founder, Vanda Insights Center on Energy Markets

Also, in the statements of the Special Energy Platform, OPEC + said that it always gives time to achieve full compliance and to monitor the impact of production cuts on the real market, before taking other measures, and beyond that; Taking into account the risk of oil market surprises; The alliance has previously sprung similar surprises in recent years.

The trend was supported by Swiss commodity analyst Giovanni Stanovo, who said OPEC+ would continue to maintain its cautious stance with the aim of maintaining the balance of the oil market. .

Voluntary production cuts announced last April by some alliance countries, which began implementation in May, needed time to affect market balance, Stanovo explained in reports to the Special Energy Platform.

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لمائة قرير البنك القربة المصري تعليقة تعريف العربية?.. برقميون يجيبون



لمائة قرير البنك القربة المصري تعليقة تعريف العربية?.. برقميون يجيبون

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) — The Central Bank of Egypt decided, Thursday, to keep interest rates at 19.25% and 20.25%, respectively, “attributing inflation to the bank’s expectations,” according to the bank’s view. زیادة فیلم “لم تعریف المنتدى الإناسب للدرترة على الثنفلة في قرآن”, في ذل تفعلهه بكريسة على المنتدى الأجنبي.

And Egypt faced an economic crisis with the outflow of indirect foreign investments and the rise of the import bill in the wake of the wave of global inflation and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and this crisis affected the shortage of foreign currency and the rise of the local inflation rate to unprecedented levels, which prompted the Central Bank of Egypt to increase interest rates by 1100 basis points. منذ شهر March 2022.

Al-Khair Banker Hani Abu Al-Futuh said that the Egyptian Central Bank remained on the interest rate “as a result of the failure to increase the interest rate in controlling the rate of inflation or even close the inflation gap with the bank’s targets at 7% (±2 percentage points) during the fourth quarter of 2024”. It is modeled after the central bank increased the interest rate by 11 percentage points since March 2022 when core inflation reached 40.4% by the end of August, indicating that “raising the interest rate is no longer a viable monetary tool to control inflation”.

The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates 6 times between March 2022 and August 2023 by a total of 1100 basis points divided between 800 basis points during 2022 and 300 basis points between March and August of the current year.

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Abu al-Futuh added, in a special statement to CNN in Arabic, that “the reasons for the increase in the rate of inflation in Egypt are related to the crisis of the shortage of foreign currency, which affected the accumulation of goods in the port, and the increase in the cost of importing production supplies and raw materials, and with the continuation of the shortage of the dollar, the increase in the interest rate in Egypt will not be able to control inflation, unlike the United States of America, which succeeded in tightening monetary policy during the past months in order to control inflation, which led the American Fed to stabilize interest rates in the last meeting.

According to the data of the Central Bank of Egypt, the annual rate of inflation in the city rose to 37.4% in August 2023 from 36.5% in July 2023, and saw the annual rate of core inflation drop to 40.7% in July 2023 and 40.4% in August 2023. 2023 compared to 41.0% in June 2023

And I expected the Central Bank of Egypt to increase the interest rate at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee during 2023, and related the decision to the government’s ability to treat the main causes of the increase in the rate of inflation, thus increasing the interest rate will play a role in controlling inflation.

واقدت السيسائي المنذاء بالبنك کنبری 6 meetings during عام 2023 The first day is 2 November and the second day is 21 December.

The expert banker Tarek Mutawli said that fixing the interest rate “comes within the framework of the government’s vision to reduce the impact of the economic crisis on citizens, as the inflation rate is far from the target of the Central Bank of Egypt and the rate has reached unprecedented levels of more than 40%, which would have required an increase in the interest rate to control the “Al-inflation except that the state adopts a vision to mitigate the negative impact of the economic crisis on the Egyptian citizen”.

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During this week, the government allocated a new 60 billion pounds (1.9 billion dollars) to increase the wages of state employees and beneficiaries of the program “تكافل وكرامة”, which is a program of cash support for the most needy people, in order to alleviate the burden on citizens.

Metwalli agreed, with what Hani Abu al-Futuh mentioned, that the interest rate increase is no longer the most appropriate monetary tool to control the inflation rate, which has reached levels far from the target of the central bank, and that the interest rate increase is mainly related to the increase in cost as a result of the foreign currency shortage crisis, adding that The central bank favors to fix the interest rate हित्य युच्च मन तथायाइत करीजी अल्याण अल्याज़ी

And Tarek Mutoli, in a special statement to CNN in Arabic, linked the interest rate increase to zero during the last meeting of the monetary policy committee at the central bank this year, to improve the global economic situation, and to overcome the crisis of foreign currency shortage locally, which may prompt the central bank to continue stabilizing until the end of the year. 2023.

The Federal Reserve Bank of America and the Bank of England stayed on the interest rate during their meeting on Wednesday, leaving the interest rate in the range of 5.25 and 5.50%, the highest level for the United States in nearly 22 years.

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Emirates News Agency – Local shares gain Dh10.4bn, Dubai market at highest level in 8 years



Emirates News Agency – Local shares gain Dh10.4bn, Dubai market at highest level in 8 years

ABU DHABI, 21st September, 2017 (WAM): Local bourses consolidated their gains at the end of today’s trade, with their market capitalization above 10.4 billion dirhams, amid strong liquidity of nearly 2.5 billion dirhams.

The Dubai Financial Market continued its rise towards its highest levels in more than 8 years, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Market extended its gains for the third consecutive session.

The market capitalization of listed stocks increased from 3.564 trillion dirhams at the end of yesterday’s session to 3.574 trillion dirhams at the end of today’s session, with 2.87 trillion dirhams distributed to listed stocks and 704.4 billion dirhams in shares on the Abu Dhabi Securities Market. The Dubai financial market has crossed the 700 billion dirham barrier for the first time in its history.

Local stocks attracted liquidity of about 2.45 billion dirhams, 1.53 billion dirhams were distributed in the Abu Dhabi market and 916.2 million dirhams in the Dubai market, and about 532.2 million shares were traded by executing more than 32.5 thousand transactions.

– Abu Dhabi Market.

The FTSE Abu Dhabi general market index “FADGI” rose 0.24% or equivalent to 23.4 points to end at 9,845.99 points, while the “FADEX 15” index gained about 0.25% to close at about 24.39 points. At 9,557.56 points, the real estate sector index rose by around 6.67% and energy by 0.66%, services by 0.57% and financials by 0.04%.

“Aldar Properties” was the top gainer with a gain of 7.9%, while “Abu Dhabi Islamic” gained 2.32%, “ADNOC Drilling” gained 1.29%, “Vertiglobe” gained 1.14% and “ADNOC Logistics” gained 0.82%. , and “Yahsat” 0.77%. “Taqa” 0.57%, “First Abu Dhabi” 0.44%, “ADNOC Distribution” 0.26%, and “Abu Dhabi Commercial” 0.23%.

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“Aldar Properties” was the largest share in the trade with about 325.9 million dirhams up to 5.87 dirhams, followed by “International Holding” which attracted 221.5 million dirhams to close up to 406 dirhams, then “Abu Dhabi Ports” reached 160 million dirhams. Dirhams and “Alfa Thabi.” 116.5 million dirhams, reaching the level of 20.48 dirhams.

– Dubai market.

The general index of the Dubai Financial Market rose 1%, or 41.28 points, to end at 4179.68 points, its highest level since August 2015, supported by a 3.41% gain by shares in the real estate sector. Communications 0.76%, Finance 0.49%, Services 0.43%, and Industry 0.21%.

The Dubai market’s performance was boosted by gains in real estate stocks, with “Emaar Properties” up 6.4%, “Tecom” up 1.12% and “Deyaar” up 0.29%. “Dubai Islamic” shares also rose. 1.57%, “Dubai Financial Market” 2.46%, and “Al Arabiya” shares increased 1.57%. Aviation 1.45%, Dubai Investments 0.82%, Empower 1.6%, Tabreed 0.85%, and Du 0.76%.

“Emaar Properties” led the action, attracting about 394.2 million dirhams in cash flow, followed by “Dubai Islamic” 127.1 million dirhams, then “Emirates NBD” 64.2 million dirhams and “Emaar Development” 57 million dirhams.

Imad al-Ali/Rami Samih

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Amid fuss over “dead monkeys,” Musk’s brain chip company opens registry for human trials



Amid fuss over “dead monkeys,” Musk’s brain chip company opens registry for human trials

Neuralink, the biotechnology start-up trying to implant chips in the human brain under the watchful eye of entrepreneur Elon Musk, announced Tuesday that it will begin recruiting for its first human clinical trial. .CNNThis coincided with a publication by the “Wired” website, which claimed that the American billionaire had “misled” his followers about killing monkeys during clinical trials of the same chip.

After receiving approval from an independent review board, the company said Neuralink has decided to begin offering operations to implant its chips into the brains of stroke victims as part of the “PRIME” study, which stands for “PRIME.” Brain-Computer Interface, which means: “A precise, robotically implanted brain-computer interface.

The tests seek to evaluate the safety and functionality of the implanted chip.

Participating patients are expected to have a chip surgically implanted in the part of the brain that controls movement commands. The chip, installed by the robot, will then record and transmit brain signals to an app on a smart device, which seeks to “give people the ability to control a computer cursor or keyboard using only their thoughts.” Written by the company.

People with quadriplegia due to cervical spinal cord injury or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) may be eligible for the study, which will last six years, including 18 months of home and clinic visits and five years of follow-up visits. Interested candidates can register. In the patient registry on the Neuralink website. .

Musk has spent the past five years working toward Neuralink’s goal of using chips to connect human brains to computers, but the company has so far only tested them on animals. The company faced scrutiny in 2022 after a monkey died while testing the program as part of an effort to get animals to play video games with their thoughts, according to the network.

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Allegations of ‘dead monkeys’

An investigation conducted by the website revealedWiredA technology expert said on Wednesday that Musk had said none of the primate species used in the chip tests had died, and the investigation has called for US officials to investigate Musk’s claims.

The website indicated that there were “new allegations of possible security fraud” related to Musk’s statements following the deaths of monkeys participating in experiments for the company “Neuralink”.

That said the site Several letters sent by the Medical Ethics Committee The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) “Physicians’ Panel for Responsible Medicine” called on the agency to investigate Musk’s allegations that macaques died during experiments because they suffered fatal diseases, not brain damage. pieces.

However, veterinarian records show that the monkeys died from complications following the implantation of the brain chips, the website said, citing letters sent to the committee’s authority.

Kasthuri confirmed that the monkeys had died… Tweet through his VX accountOn September 10th, he owned, in a reply to a user, where he denied that the dead animals were caused by a “Neuralink chip” and said researchers were “interested in using animals on the brink.” Death.”

At the same time, in a presentation to his company last year, Musk confirmed that Neuralink’s experiments on animals were never for “research” reasons, but rather to ensure that unified scientific principles were proven. “We are very careful.”

But public records it reviewed, as well as interviews with a former NeuraLink employee and a researcher who now works at the Primate Species Center at the University of California, Davis, “paint a completely different picture” of what’s going on in NeuraLink’s animal experiments, Wired noted. .

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It noted that the public documents include veterinary records, made public for the first time last year, that “contain gruesome images of the suffering of up to 12 animals of Neuraling’s flagship species, all of whom had to be euthanized.”

Wired noted that the records “could form the basis of a possible SEC investigation into Musk’s comments about NeuraLink,” which has faced multiple federal investigations as the company moves toward its goal of introducing the first commercially available brain-computer interface for humans.

The U.S. authority declined Wired’s request for comment regarding the group’s ethics messages, and Neuralink did not respond to Wired’s questions about Musk’s comments or the group’s allegations.

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