Monday, June 17, 2024

The gold movement is not over yet


“The war bill is not paid during the war, but afterwards.”
Benjamin Franklin

In light of the difference in beliefs between different parts of the world, wars are inevitable, and in every war there is someone who pays a price and someone who wins. The US war with Iraq first rose 20%, in light of the war… the states with Russia suffered 10%, as we are investors, we must be vigilant in correcting the impact of the war so that we realize how to escape it, because the war tax, as analysts, is just an increase. Looking more complicated than that.

Recent technological developments
In our previous article entitled Gold is getting ready for the worst, we stated that a sustained close above 1950 indicates that the price will reach 2000, and at the time of writing, gold has seen the highs of 1980 and a slowdown. It may change our view as analysis develops.

Latest news and its impact on prices
In light of the wars, the savvy investor looks for an official excuse that the government uses as an excuse for the markets to deteriorate, and this message is simple.

·After the arrests, the Houthis officially enter the war Enterprise ship.
·Iran declares that it is not responsible for the behavior of the Houthis, and up to this point has confined the situation to the framework of a resistance that has to be feared until major countries intervene and turn the war into a regional war.
·The U.S. government is negotiating with Congress over a debt ceiling crisis, and it’s putting states under a huge burden.
·This week, we await news that reflects the true economic reality of the states through indicators of economic activity, for which we await.

Based on fundamental analysis, I don’t see anything pushing the price of gold down, the war is going to intensify and that pushes the price of gold higher or at least higher. Additionally, states are fundamentally under financial pressure. Because they’re the biggest supporters of Ukraine and the war in Ukraine, it’s costing them a lot, it’s not over yet, and it’s the biggest supporter of Israel, and it’s basically supporting it in a time when support is needed. These are all things that are worrying about the US economy, and I’m not saying a collapse here, but we could see a stagnation due to weak pumping, and that’s what happened after every war it fought. States, here’s the difference. At this point this stagnation will be inflationary.

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Recession: This is a weak economic movement and is accompanied by a fall in prices and a decline in income.
Stagnation: Weakness in the dynamics of the economy with a weak currency and high unemployment rates

Technical analysis of price
A technical look at prices on the daily chart:
A recent decline early on October 11 resulted in a test of a bullish pennant pattern.
Momentum began to decline at the 1985 level, and the movement of the candle at a rate of three points per second is the natural momentum for gold. A decline in the higher area is evidence that market makers have started “whaling”. Classify the price as high, and if the price has to be high… due to circumstances, he has to retest the last high Fibonacci level, and this way he gets enough speed to penetrate that area, and gold’s top speed is four moves per second.

Technical Summary: Gold should retrace 1955 levels and advance again towards 1985. If tested by a long-tailed candle and close above 1950, it will target 1985 as the first step. If that is achieved, it means that prices are headed for a peak in 2030.
The previous two conditions, knowing that staying within these levels is not safe – that is, there is a risk of a return to its normal price at any time.


So, based on the analysis, we make a medium-term forecast

Medium term market based on technical analysis
The market is a probabilistic environment, which mathematics tells us is fact, not opinion.
Mark Douglas

Since we consider the market as a probabilistic environment, any possibility is possible in it, and the multiplicity of these possibilities cannot be avoided except by the conditional and decision method, which must examine each possibility and the condition it must satisfy. The condition is not fulfilled, the possibility is not fulfilled.

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First scene
Status: Test closes daily above 1950, then 1955
Visual Accuracy: 65%
If the condition is fulfilled: Gold will rise with enough momentum to retrace 1985 and then 1990. There are other conditions for a continuation of the rise, the most important of which is maintaining gold’s natural velocity above 1985.

Second scene
Visual Accuracy: 45%
If the previous condition fails, Gold could not close above 1955, so we do not expect a strong decline in gold, but rather an occasional trade between 1940 – 1951.

Technical analyst opinion
In fact, I believe it was overstated at the time, and this explains why it started to slow down. Had it not been for geopolitical conditions and financial pressures from states, the price of gold would have been at least 1700. If you are a speculator, the best advice when dealing with gold is to categorize your approach very carefully. It is better to buy from 1950, if you are a medium to long term investor, you may find these prices exaggerated and increase your price, so remember to compare gold with price and time frame every time, so that it is easier for you to deal with it and see it reach your goal.

Researcher: Umar Al-Sayah
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Nadia Barnett
Nadia Barnett
"Award-winning beer geek. Extreme coffeeaholic. Introvert. Avid travel specialist. Hipster-friendly communicator."

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