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The Ukraine war is transforming global oil markets

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The Ukraine war is transforming global oil markets

LONDON (Reuters) – The Russo-Ukrainian war has reshaped the global oil market, with suppliers from Africa stepping up to meet European demand, while Moscow, tumbling under Western sanctions, is seeking to make greater use of risky ship transfers. Raw to Asia. The change in these routes reflects the huge change in the supply side of the global market for the crude oil trade since the American shale oil revolution changed the shape of the market a decade ago, and indicates that Russia can avoid an oil embargo. Asian countries, especially China, are buying their raw materials so that the EU can impose it if it continues. Sanctions imposed on Moscow after the war in Ukraine in February, including a US import embargo, prompted Russia to export more discounts from Europe to buyers in India and China, according to industry and trade data. According to data from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, Russian exports returned to pre-Russian military levels in April, and oil prices remained close to $ 110 a barrel, a 14-year high of $ 139. In March.

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Analysts say that even if the EU agrees to an oil embargo in the next round of sanctions against Russia, Asian demand could offset the impact of the embargo. “We do not expect the supply gap to widen or prices to rise unless Western countries put diplomatic pressure on Asian buyers,” said Norbert Rucker of the Jules Beer Group. Complex and tangled sanctions imposed on Moscow by the United States, Britain and the European Union have prevented Russian-owned or Russian-flagged vessels from entering ports, meaning that some of Asia’s increased trade is done through shipping. At sea, a costly and relevant process, raw leakage risks. Overall, according to Tanker Tracker Petro-Logistics and other data, Russia’s maritime oil flow to Asia has risen by at least 50 percent since the beginning of the year. Ship-to-ship cargo transfer, which represents a small percentage of maritime trade, was diverted from the Danish coast to the Mediterranean Sea to avoid obstacles and objections.

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“Ship-to-ship exchanges are common in the Danish seas at the entrance to the Baltic Sea,” Mark Gerber, head of petro-logistics, told Reuters. Average heat and favorable. “Gerber estimates that the volume of Russian crude and oil carried from one ship to another in the Mediterranean is about 400,000 barrels a day, most of which goes to Asia, plus 2.3 million barrels a day directly before the attack. About 1.5 million barrels per day went directly to Asia.

Shipping charges

Traders claim that Russian crude oil is loaded on Aframax or Swissmax ships carrying less than a million barrels, and that shipping at large to ships with a capacity of two million barrels reduces shipping costs. Maritime exports account for only a fraction of Russia’s total exports. According to the International Energy Agency, total Russian exports of crude and its products, including those carried by pipelines, have risen to just eight million barrels a day. In exchange for Russian crude oil, European refineries switched to importing ore from West Africa. According to petro-logistics data, those imports increased by 17 per cent in April compared to the average from 2018 to 2021.

European demand

Icon data shows an increase, with 660,000 barrels a day arriving in Northeastern Europe from Nigeria, Angola and Cameroon in May, of which Nigeria’s three crude oil exports, compared to one export in February. Meanwhile, Gerber said West African crude exports to India halved, sending 280,000 bpd in April, up from 510,000 bpd in March, while New Delhi converted to Russian crude. Traders say Nigeria’s low light, sulfur crude oil prices have risen to record highs as European demand has increased.

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According to Petro-Logistics, deliveries from North Africa to Europe have increased by 30 percent since March. Of these, exports from the Egyptian port of CDCerreal to northwestern Europe nearly doubled to more than 400,000 barrels a day in May, analysts say. The United States also increased its supply to Europe. Kepler said European crude oil imports from the United States in May were up more than 15 percent since March, the highest monthly increase on record. In addition, Europe exports about 1.45 million barrels of crude oil a day from the United States.

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Economy

Calls to freeze oil and gas investments threaten global growth

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Calls to freeze oil and gas investments threaten global growth

The Bank of Japan is trying to contain the bond crisis despite upward pressure

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell slightly from the 10-year on Tuesday after a strong bid and the Bank of Japan pledged to buy bonds in the next session.

However, global yields are still rising, and the 10-year swap rate has hit a record high, indicating strong upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell a basis point to 0.760 percent — its highest level since September 2013 — in the session, after reaching 0.780 percent.

“The Bank of Japan is trying to contain high yields with emergency bond purchases, but there are still upward pressures,” said Takeshi Ishida, strategist at Resona Holdings. He added: “The issue now is when the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy, not whether or not it will.”

The 10-year interest rate swap rose to 0.9875 percent on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan said on Monday it would hold an unscheduled bond purchase on Wednesday and another on Friday after yields hit multi-year highs.

The order in the government bond auction was 3.93 times lower than the 4.02 times it was sold in last month’s auction. But the gap between the low and the average narrowed to 0.02 yen from 0.10 yen previously, indicating strong demand.

Keisuke Tsuruta, fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said the decision was supported by the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases. He added: “Although the Bank of Japan has widened the trading range for 10-year bond yields to give the market more flexibility, yield levels and auction results are determined by what the bank does.”

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Bids for the 10-year bond saw weak demand in the previous two months as investors were wary of buying bonds amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan would adjust its ultra-low interest rate policy.

On the other hand, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that any decision on currency market intervention would depend on volatility and not a specific level of the yen, with investors bracing for a possible move if the yen crosses the 150 yen level. against the dollar.

Suzuki said authorities were closely monitoring the currency market and were ready to respond, reiterating his warning against speculative activity as the yen nears the 150-yen level against the dollar in a year.

“Currency levels won’t be a deciding factor” on intervention, Suzuki said, “it’s volatility that matters.”

The foreign exchange market showed little reaction to Suzuki’s comments, although traders were watching to see what action Japanese authorities will take as the year approaches levels that prompted intervention a year ago. Speaking at a press conference, Suzuki added that “authorities are closely monitoring market movements… It is important that currencies move stably to reflect economic fundamentals.” “We will be fully prepared to respond.”

A weaker yen pushes up prices by raising import costs, while other factors, including the war in Ukraine and production cuts by oil-producing nations, are also weighing on cost-driven inflation, Suzuki said.

As for newly issued 10-year government bonds, which yielded 0.8 percent, the highest level in a decade, Suzuki said long-term interest rates are determined by the market, reflecting various factors.

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In general, higher long-term interest rates lead to higher borrowing costs, so officials are closely monitoring the impact of movements in long-term interest rates and how they may affect households and businesses, Suzuki said.

In a separate matter, the heads of finance authorities in South Korea and Japan agreed on Tuesday to resume periodic “spacecraft meetings” as part of their efforts to boost financial cooperation between the two countries, South Korean officials said.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency made the announcement in a joint statement after a meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday by Kim Joo-hyun, head of the Financial Services Commission in Seoul, and Teruhisa Kurita, commissioner of the Financial Services Agency in Tokyo.

The two groups will resume their regular meeting in Seoul on December 19-20 for the first time since 2016. During a meeting of the Korean and Japanese delegations on Tuesday, Kim and Kurita also agreed to exchange their experiences and ideas. Financial services of general importance, such as climate change and digitization.

Kim and Kurita discussed potential areas for deepening cooperation between the two groups to safeguard Korean-Japanese financial stability and strengthen the two countries’ financial markets.

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OPEC Secretary General: Lack of Oil Investments Threatens Energy Security

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OPEC Secretary General: Lack of Oil Investments Threatens Energy Security

Oil prices rose 30 percent in the third quarter as supply shortages persisted

ABU DHABI, TOKYO – Reuters: A lack of investment is putting energy security at risk, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Haitham Al-Qais confirmed yesterday at the ADIPEC oil conference in Abu Dhabi. OPEC’s secretary-general added: “We call for continued investment in the oil and gas sector, and we believe calls to freeze investment will be counterproductive,” Reuters reported.
Al-Qais confirmed that OPEC is optimistic about oil demand.
In the middle of last month, the chief OPEC official warned against abandoning fossil fuels in his first response to the International Energy Agency’s latest reports.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Qais said that abandoning fossil fuels would “lead to energy chaos on an unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people around the world.”
Major international oil major BP said countries around the world should invest in oil and gas production to avoid a sharp rise in their prices, while accelerating the energy transition to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.
(ADIPEC 2023) is considered to be the largest event in the world’s energy and oil industry and is supported by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates and a group of partners. It is a platform for exchange of ideas and global debate. Challenges affecting energy markets and their effects on prices, including political challenges and international conflicts and their impact on energy supplies, provide a roadmap and future solutions to support and develop a sustainable, secure and low-cost energy system.
In turn, oil prices rose on Monday, recovering some of their losses from last Friday, as investors focused on global supply shortages and expectations of a last-minute deal to avoid a US government shutdown, which restored their appetite for risk. By 09:49 GMT, Brent crude futures for December delivery were up 54 cents, or 0.59%, at $92.74 a barrel, after falling 90 cents in last Friday’s session. Brent crude oil for November delivery was down seven cents at $95.31 a barrel when the contract closed last Friday.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.54%, at $91.28 a barrel, after falling 92 cents.
Both crudes rose nearly 30% in the third quarter, supported by expectations that oil supply shortfalls will widen in the fourth quarter after OPEC+ extended voluntary production cuts until the end of the year.

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Emirates News Agency – “Kadem” mission showcases critical communications capabilities at Oman Defense, Security and Fire Expo

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Emirates News Agency – “Kadem” mission showcases critical communications capabilities at Oman Defense, Security and Fire Expo

ABU DHABI, 2nd October, 2020 (WAM) – “Katem”, a subsidiary of EDGE Group and a leader in developing innovative and ultra-secure communication solutions, is participating in the Oman Defense, Security and Fire Exhibition 2023. Showcase an advanced portfolio of ultra-secure devices and network encryption solutions.

The international exhibition, to be held in Muscat on October 9 and 10, is an important forum for the critical communications sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the Middle East region in general.

During the event, the company will showcase its next-generation secure smartphone, which aims to offer advanced security features and capabilities to meet mission-critical needs.

Katam’s participation in the exhibition is a strategic move aimed at reaffirming its commitment to mission-critical sectors including emergency response, public safety and critical infrastructure protection. The company’s booth will showcase a range of ultra-secure devices, including KATIM X2, an ultra-secure 5G smartphone for government leaders, senior executives, emergency responders, individuals and teams handling sensitive information. and the KATIM R01, a rugged smartphone for critical communications in harsh field conditions.

KATIM will showcase its latest network encryption software, the KATIM Gateway 9011, which provides advanced post-quantum encryption for sensitive communications and data transmission to address increasing data interference during data transmission. Exhibitors can visit Katam at booth F10 to meet the company’s team and learn more about secure communications solutions for mission-critical operations.

Mustafa Badr al-Din / Ahmad al-Nu’imi

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