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Why is it impossible to predict the date and location of an earthquake?



Why is it impossible to predict the date and location of an earthquake?

The Moroccan, Abdel Latif, was sitting in his house, but suddenly everything changed: the house collapsed, he quickly escaped death, so he went out wounded, looking for someone to help him.

Abdellatif and all who lived through the shock in the Moroccan village of Damskart can ask: How did this happen? Is there a way to predict disaster before it happens?

A young man from the Moroccan village of Tiqt cries amid the rubble

In fact, scientists agree that earthquakes cannot be predicted A statement This does not preclude the existence of two main camps arguing about the matter, says an expert published by the Scientific American website.

The first camp says that earthquakes are caused by a complex series of small shocks, a subtle chain reaction that occurs deep within a fault in the Earth. In geology, faults are cracks in the Earth’s crust, so earthquakes are inherently unpredictable and always remain so.

The second camp is more optimistic about the future, and includes some geophysicists who believe that humans may one day hold the key to prediction, if only they could measure the right signals and gain enough experience.

Prediction key

Science has yet to find a way to rely on quantifiable predictions that act as clues that tell humans precisely about the location, time and strength of an earthquake, providing early warning worth paying attention to. Earthquake forecasting skills are still general and unhelpful.

For example, if scientists predict that an earthquake will occur in California in 2023, this will certainly come true, but it will not be useful, because California is prone to many small earthquakes every day.

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The earthquake has severely damaged areas in northwestern Syria

Let’s imagine that scientists predict an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater in the Pacific Northwest. It’s almost certainly true, but it doesn’t say when, so it’s not useful new information.

Where is the glitch?

Earthquakes occur because the slow, steady movements of tectonic plates create stresses along faults in the Earth’s crust. Faults are not really lines, but planes that extend across the Earth for miles. Friction resulting from the tremendous pressure due to the weight of the overlying rock binds these cracks together.

An earthquake begins at a small point on the fault. Here the pressure overcomes the friction, and then the two sides pass each other, and the rupture propagates at a speed of one or two miles per second.

The friction of the two sides of the fault against each other sends waves of rock movement in every direction, like circular ripples in a rockfall pond, and it is these waves that shake the ground and cause damage.

Most earthquakes happen without warning, and the reason is that faults are stuck, closed and stable, despite the pressure of the moving plates around them, so they remain silent until this rupture begins.

This is a very complicated matter, and seismologists have yet to find a reliable signal to measure these movements on a pre-earthquake fault.

February earthquake causes massive destruction in Türkiye – archive photo

Pre-Earthquake Indicators

Of every 20 catastrophic earthquakes, only one detected preliminary tremors, warning people before disaster struck. This is a very low percentage and indicates the difficulty of the task.

However, this small tremor is not, by scientists’ definition, a sign of a major earthquake. This explains why humans cannot develop a useful prediction system.

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There have been 8 or more major earthquakes, including the 9 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Chile. Interestingly, these large earthquakes seem to have shown some early signals, such as small tremors detected by seismometers, or rapid movements of the nearby Earth’s crust, known as “slow motions” detected by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. Slide events.

The death toll in Morocco has risen to 1,305

These observations suggest that precursor signals for at least some large earthquakes may already exist. The sheer magnitude of the subsequent earthquake may have caused imperceptible changes in the fault zone before the main event was detected.

The problem is that very few earthquakes exceed magnitude 8, so scientists don’t have many examples that allow them to test hypotheses using statistical methods.

Realistic prediction

As scientists seek to achieve a “useful prediction” that tells humans where and how strong an earthquake will be, the idea can seem illogical and impractical, and faces many dilemmas.

First, it is often said in the field of seismology that earthquakes do not kill people, but buildings. Scientists already believe the best course of action is to redouble efforts to build or improve buildings, bridges and other infrastructure.

Second, earthquakes are so rare that any preliminary methods will inevitably have uncertain accuracy. Faced with such uncertainty, who would call for such a major move as evacuating an entire city or region? How long should people stay away from their homes if there is no earthquake? What if people respond to evacuation orders and an earthquake doesn’t occur? Will you reply next time? How do authorities balance the risks posed by the chaos of a mass evacuation with the dangers posed by an earthquake? So the idea of ​​creating an effective, complete and reliable predictive technology is an enigma.

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Washington is strengthening military bases in the Philippines to protect Taiwan



Washington is strengthening military bases in the Philippines to protect Taiwan

These facilities include shipbuilding, airstrip repair and military bases in the Philippines, ready to defend the Philippines and support the island of Taiwan, located north of the Philippines, in case of any Chinese invasion of the island.

Philippine request

The news came in a report by the Hong Kong newspaper “South China Morning Post” published on Monday.

  • The Philippines has asked the US to help build a ship and repair an airstrip at the Camilo Osias naval base in northern Cagayan province, which is accessible to Washington under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed between the two countries in 2014.
  • These bases are very close to southern Taiwan and, if strengthened and developed, could be focal points if a conflict with China erupts.
  • There are plans to add a fuel storage facility and command center at Lal Lo Airport, Cagayan.
  • US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. John Aquilino and Armed Forces of the Philippines Commander Romeo Browner Jr. inspected the two sites this month to discuss increasing the number of sites Americans can access under the deal.

Mutual Defense Agreement

The EDCA agreement is a joint defense agreement that allows the US military to rotate forces for long periods of time in 5 locations in the country, located across from China, separated only by the waters of the South China Sea, and allowing Washington to build and operate facilities. For American and Philippine forces.

In February, the Philippines extended an agreement to give the Americans access to four other military bases, including Camilo Osias Naval Base and Lal Lu Airport, north of the country toward southern Taiwan.

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The Philippines and the United States have agreed that the Camilo Osias base and Lal Lu airport could play an important role in the event of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan. Forces operating there would have immediate access to defend Taiwan’s southern flank and prevent Chinese incursions into the Philippine Sea through the Bashi Channel.

The Philippines has been under military pressure from China, including incidents in recent months in which Chinese ships blocked Philippine Coast Guard vessels from reaching disputed islands.

Time indicators

Since August 2022, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has seen a serious crisis between Beijing and Washington, which China accuses of supporting Washington in its “separatist efforts”. It is bracing for the possibility of a US-China conflict in the region, particularly if Beijing invades Taiwan.

In light of this situation, political analyst Jasser Matar explains to Sky News Arabia the implications of recent US action in the Philippines, which is close to Taiwan and the Chinese mainland:

  • The Philippines has bases closest to Taiwan, which is the gateway to the south of the island.
  • The US wants to build up a military base at every point close to Taiwan. Supporting Ukraine in the event of a Chinese invasion, as it did in neighboring Poland.
  • Also, the intensity of the US presence and the development of military infrastructure in the Philippines contribute to the defense of Manila, which could be vulnerable to military action if a conflict breaks out over Taiwan.
  • This creates a crisis for China; The United States prepared Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to defend Taiwan.
  • Washington, for its part, is betting that increasing the armaments of these allies and intensifying its presence on their lands will deter China from attacking Taiwan. So don’t open more than one front.
  • However, if a conflict breaks out in the South China Sea, it will be multilateral, not just between two countries.
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The US Defense Secretary, who visited Manila last February, reaffirmed his country’s commitment to the Philippines in the event of any attacks, as per the Mutual Defense Treaty.

“We have indicated that the mutual defense agreement applies to armed attacks on our armed forces, public vessels or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea,” he said at a news conference in Austin. With his Filipino, Carlito Galvez.

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Hamdok’s dissolved government addresses the United Nations regarding al-Burhan’s participation



Hamdok’s dissolved government addresses the United Nations regarding al-Burhan’s participation

Abdallah Hamdok’s government, dissolved by the decision of Sudan’s military commander, said al-Burhan’s participation in the United Nations General Assembly in New York was “contrary to declared international positions against military coups”.

According to a memorandum signed by Abdullah Hamdok and several former ministers, the participation of the Sudanese military commander in the work of the United Nations General Assembly sends alarming and encouraging signals to the military revolutions that have recently spread in Africa.

October 2021 mentioned in the memorandum

Mr. United Nations. Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres:

Subject: Participation of the leader of the October 25 coup in Sudan at the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

We, the undersigned members of the Government of Sudan formed in 2019, this year’s constitutional document, address you to clarify the following:

  • First, on October 25, 2021, a military component led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Abdel Rahman led a military coup against the interim civilian government, leading to a complete constitutional collapse. This led to the existence of a de facto government which collapsed with the outbreak of the 15th War, a direct result of a coup against the civil government.
  • Secondly, the African Union, the UN Regional and international institutions, including the Security Council and the European Union, have rejected the military coup that undermined the interim government and halted the democratic transition process in Sudan. Coup and return of power to the people.
  • Thirdly, the invitation of the coup leader to represent Sudan in the United Nations General Assembly meetings is contrary to the above positions, and it also contributes to the continuation of the ongoing war in Sudan today. This sends very alarming and encouraging signals to the recent rise in military coups on the African continent.
  • The Glorious Revolution of December 2018 determined the Sudanese people’s stance on military coups and authoritarian regimes by recognizing the government’s full civil code and rejecting the October 25 coup, as well as defining the military’s relationship with politics. Constitution and defense of the country against external threats. To the coup leader who shares the commitment to democracy, peace and freedom as a partner in the war in Sudan today.
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He’s been on the run for 30 years: Italian mafia boss Messina Tenaro is dead



He’s been on the run for 30 years: Italian mafia boss Messina Tenaro is dead

Italian mafia boss Messina Denaro, who was arrested by authorities in January after 30 years on the run, has died at the age of 61, Italian media outlet Agence France-Presse reported.

Messina Tenaro was suffering from cancer at the time of his arrest. After his condition worsened in recent weeks, he was transferred to a hospital from the high-security prison in central Italy where he was initially held.

(Files) This handout photo taken and released by the Italian Carabinieri press office on January 16, 2023 shows Italy’s top wanted mafia boss Matteo Messina Tenaro in Palermo following his arrest on January 16, 2023.

According to France 24, Messina Tenaro helped launch acts of terrorism against the Italian state and was sentenced to six separate life sentences over the years, including the 1992 murder of anti-mafia judge Giovanni Falcone and his role in deadly bombings. Rome Florence and Milan in 1993.

Messina Tenaro, who led the Corleonesi clan immortalized in the Godfather films, died in prison in 2017.

Messina Tenaro was based in Trapani province in western Sicily, but by the time of his arrest on January 16, 2023, his influence had extended to the capital, Palermo.

Messina Tenaro had been on the run since 1993, and police finally arrested him when he visited a cancer treatment center in Palermo.

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