The political scenario in Iraq appears to be open to all possibilities after the announcement of the initial results of the early legislative elections released by the Chadrist movement, while the forces allied with Iran have announced their willingness to challenge the results of the referendum after suffering heavy losses. .
The Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s coalition won a landslide victory in 73 of the 329 parliamentary constituencies, 19 more than in the 2018 election.
The Chadrist movement
The victory of the Chadrist coalition in the election came as no surprise to many. The movement is one of the most popular and powerful Shia sects in Iraq.
The strength of the current is attributed to a number of factors, including the personality of its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, who comes from a prominent religious family. Al-Sadr has deliberately distanced himself from the ruling political class in Iraq, accusing him of corruption. Despite the fact that his previous group “Sieron” was a participant in the Iraqi parliament and government during the widespread protests in the country in October 2019, he called on his supporters to join the peaceful movement. His critics prompted him to popularize the accusation.
Prior to the last election, al-Sadr was reluctant to withdraw from the voting process before making a decision to run.
In general, al-Sadr’s political stance appears to be changing and there is a lack of stability in political orientations and positions, so it is difficult to anticipate alliances formed by the Shia cleric after the election.
However, over the past few years, especially in the wake of massive demonstrations calling for reform, the trend has focused on defending Iraqi sovereignty, ending regional intervention in internal affairs and removing US forces from Iraq and normalizing relations with the Arab world.
These positions were reiterated in al-Sadr’s speech after the announcement of the initial results of the elections, in which he described the victory of his coalition as a “victory for reform … and against corruption and normalcy.” He encouraged ordinary people as well to take part in solving this great task: “One of the things you and other people can do is keep up the pressure … there are going to be some difficult decisions for government”.
Other Shia forces
The legal coalition led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki won 37 seats and came in third with 37 seats. 2018 election.
As for the progress of the Chhattisgarh movement, it came at the expense of other Shia forces, some of which were affiliated with popular mobilization factions. Some blame these forces for killing the protesters, which has led to a decline in their popularity on the streets of Iraq.
The al-Fateh coalition, led by Hadi al-Amiri, is the most important of these losing forces because it reached only 14 seats, a significant setback from its landslide victory in the 2018 election, which came in second with 47 seats.
The third largest Shia faction of losers calls itself the “National Force of the State Coalition.” The coalition is led by Ammar al-Hakim and former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. According to the announced preliminary results, the team won only four seats.
Although the coalition was seen as a major enemy of the al-Fateh coalition before the election, al-Abadi, one of its allies, along with al-Amiri and his allies, found himself in a trench in the camp of those challenging the electoral process. And its results.
A statement issued by the so-called Coordinating Framework of Forces, including the Al-Fateh Alliance and the Al-Abadi Alliance, declared that “the results of the election will not be accepted” and promised to take all preventive measures. Voter Manipulation. “
Sunni forces and parties contested the election with three main alliances: the “Progress” coalition, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halboosi, and the “Azm” coalition, led by Kamis al-Ghanjar, head of the “Arab Project”. As a “national salvation program” coalition led by Osama al-Nujaifi, with the participation of other political figures. From the Governorate of Nineveh.
The “Progressive” coalition finished second with 43 seats, while the “Azm” coalition had good success, which could play a key role in pushing Sunni forces al-Sadr’s hand against its rivals from other Shia forces. They accept the alliance with him to form a parliamentary coalition.
As in all previous elections, the Kurdish Democratic Party, led by Masood Barzani, won 32 seats in the Kurdistan region, while losing the patriotic union of Kurdistan, led by the family of the late Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. In its previous 18 locations. As the Koran movement (change) lost all seats, another force, the New Generation, emerged with 9 seats in Suleiman.
The elections came ahead of their original date in response to the demands of the struggle movement, which expressed widespread and deep frustration among Iraqis, especially among the young Iraqi political elite and the broader desire for change.
However, as the elections approached, the possibility of bringing about change through the ballot boxes waned and the enthusiasm and confidence of the forces that led the struggles waned, and the matter reached out to the major parties to boycott the elections. And voting.
Elections were boycotted by many young, civil and liberal forces who took an active part in the protests and struggles that toppled the government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi.
One of the most important forces that refused to participate was the Communist Party of Iraq and the “National House” party, with the exception of the youth of the struggle movement.
The calls by these forces and other faces of the youth opposition movement to boycott the referendum can be seen behind the low turnout since 2005, which saw the first election since the US occupation. Of Iraq.
But this does not mean that the lists of newcomers to parliament are new bloodless, in addition to the many seats won by independents led by activist and opposition activist Ala al-Rikabi, such as the civil “extension” movement, which gives the new parliament significant presence. Expectations indicated the possibility of civilian forces and parties winning more seats, most of whom did not choose to boycott.
The audience sees these forces as part of a change in the new parliament, as they enter, are supported by other audiences, and adopt a new discourse closer to the concerns of the street.
The biggest challenge facing the other forces that came first in the Chadrist movement and decisions is in gathering enough seats (165 seats) to form the largest coalition that can form a new government.
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