Oil market seeks glimmer of hope in Chinese closure tunnel .. Fear restricts demand gains

Crude oil prices rose about 4 percent at the close of trading yesterday, amid fears that if the European Union imposes a ban on Russian oil after Moscow approves a ban on Russian oil, petrol prices in the United States will rise further. State-owned European units of the Russian company Gasprom.
Brent crude ended $ 4 higher at $ 111.45, up more than 3.2 percent, while US West Texas intermediate crude futures rose $ 4.36 (4.11 percent) to $ 110.49 a barrel.
The market is volatile and the EU may ban Russian oil supplies, leading to supply shortages and concerns about declining global demand.
“Oil traders are looking forward to seeing the light of day at the end of the dark Chinese strike tunnel,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SBI Asset Management.
“However, we always return to the starting point with a comparison between the decline in the number of cases and the increase in the compliance of the authorities with the zero-Govt policy,” he added.
The sharp rise in inflation and interest rates led to the high level of the dollar to a 20-year high, while the rise of the dollar against other currencies while buying oil curbs the profitability of oil prices.
But analysts continue to focus on a possible EU embargo on Russian oil this week after imposing sanctions on European units of the state-owned Gasprom in Moscow and blocking a major gas transport route for Ukraine.
Jeffrey Haley, Oanda’s chief market analyst, said:
“The impact of Russia’s increase in response to sanctions is likely to extend to the strength of oil prices,” he added.
Yesterday, an international report highlighted the conflicting factors in the market, as it said, “The slowdown in oil production and demand growth in the Middle East and the United States is expected to prevent a severe supply shortfall amid growing disruptions in Russian supplies.”
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand to 2022 for the second month in a row, citing the impact of war, high inflation and the re-emergence of the corona virus. China.
In its monthly report, the organization said, “Global oil demand will increase by 3.36 million barrels per day in 2022, and 310,000 barrels per day will fall short of previous expectations.”
The Ukrainian war has pushed up oil prices, topping $ 139 a barrel in March, the highest level since 2008.
“OPEC” points to expectations that China, which has imposed drastic closures to control the Govt-19, will face the biggest demand shock after 2020 as oil consumption plummets.
“In addition to the controls to control the Govt-19 epidemic, demand is expected in 2022 to be affected by ongoing political developments in Eastern Europe,” he said in a statement.
However, “OPEC” still expects global consumption to exceed one hundred million barrels per day in the third quarter, and by 2022 the annual average will be higher than pre-epidemic levels.
The “OPEC” pointed to rising inflation and the continuation of monetary tightening policies, lowering its forecast for economic growth this year from 3.9 per cent to 3.5 per cent, and said “the chances of reversing these paths are slim.”
OPEC lowered its forecast for Russian production by 360,000 barrels per day, but did not change its forecast for production growth from the United States.
U.S. distribution is expected to rise to 880,000 barrels per day by 2022, unchanged from last month’s forecast, the agency said, adding that “there is a possibility of further expansion later this year.”
In addition, Iraq set the official selling price of basra medium crude oil in June at a premium of $ 2.80 per barrel above the Oman / Dubai average.
In the same month, the official selling price of Basra Medium Crude Oil for Europe was set at $ 6.85 a barrel from the date Brent and $ 1.7 a barrel for North and South America without the Ascii Index.
The Iraqi oil marketing company “SOMO” eliminated the need to export Basra Light crude oil to its customers in 2022 and set it aside for local consumption, as further enforcement of these standards at Iraqi refineries could lead to an increase in the supply of Basra. Medium and heavy crude oil for export.
Revenue from Iraqi oil exports rose 82.9 percent between January and the end of April.
It reached $ 38.58 billion in the first four months of 2022, compared to $ 21.09 billion in the same period last year.
This improvement has been supported by the rise in oil prices since last year and the aftermath of the Russian war in Ukraine since the beginning of this year.
Iraq’s oil exports averaged 3.2 million barrels per day in the four months to 2022, compared to an average of 2.9 million barrels a day in the same period last year.
On the other hand, “OPEC” basket crude fell, and its price reached $ 108.18 per barrel on Tuesday, up from $ 112.48 per barrel the previous day.
The daily report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said, “The price of a basket of crude oil, which averages 13 per cent from the output of member states, has fallen for the second time in a row after a series of ups and downs. Recorded.