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Oil traders are on the defensive against the risk of an escalating war between Israel and the opposition

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Oil traders are on the defensive against the risk of an escalating war between Israel and the opposition

Oil traders are hedging against the risk of an escalating war between Israel and Palestinian resistance

Oil prices posted their highest increase in a month after Iran said it could open a new front in the conflict between the Israeli occupation and Palestinian resistance. Brent crude futures rose $4.89, or 5.7%, to $90.89 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $87 a barrel, gaining $5 in a week since the war broke out.

A more drastic escalation would push Israel toward direct conflict with Iran. In this scenario, Bloomberg Economics estimates that oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel and global economic growth would slow to 1.7%.

Oil prices rose in the first trading session last Monday after the start of the “al-Aqsa flood” operation launched by Palestinian resistance against occupied military bases and Israeli settlements bordering the Gaza Strip, but futures contracts lost some of their gains. Over the next few sessions, after investors dismissed any risk, directly on oil supplies from the Middle East.

Prices rose again in the last session of the week on Friday after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned that the occupation and blockade imposed on Gaza would open a new front in the conflict between the Israeli occupation and the resistance.

The Israeli military is expected to launch a ground offensive soon to force the evacuation of northern Gaza. Options markets, which saw huge volatility last week, saw another move in favor of buying, betting on price rises, an unusual shift that shows investors are hedging against the risk of further price rises.

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Investors are trying to factor in the possibility of Iran joining the war and any risk of disruption to broader flows. Although supply has not been significantly affected so far, traders said Friday’s rise indicated investors were abandoning bearish bets ahead of the weekend.

In turn, OANDA’s market analyst Edward Moya, according to the American Bloomberg agency, said, “The oil market, which is currently suffering from a supply shortage, now has to deal with more geopolitical instability, and crude oil prices are increasing. Energy Investors said “we strongly believe we will see some conflict-related supply disruptions in the future.”

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Economy

Analysis of Bitcoin Against the US Dollar Today: Bitcoin

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Analysis of Bitcoin Against the US Dollar Today: Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell early in Friday’s session but quickly reversed, showing renewed vitality. All indicators currently point to an upward trajectory, with the $45,000 level likely to be targeted in the near term. Current sentiment appears decidedly bullish, and any pullbacks in the market are likely to be closely watched for potential buying opportunities and value discovery.

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In this dynamic market, there is significant support at the $40,000 level, often referred to as the “market bottom.” Additionally, the 20-day moving average is in line with this level, which reinforces its importance. However, it is important to realize that Bitcoin’s defining characteristic is its volatility, a characteristic inherent not only to Bitcoin but to the wider cryptocurrency space.

A significant factor influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory is the relationship between US interest rates and the cryptocurrency. Interest rates show a negative relationship with Bitcoin, as low interest rates encourage investors to seek higher returns across the risk spectrum. Conversely, high interest rates may deter institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency market.

Also, investors are eyeing the potential launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the coming months. This development has sparked excitement in the cryptocurrency community, with ETFs representing a departure from Bitcoin’s original spirit. However, it highlights the growing interest in bridging the gap between traditional financial networks and the emerging cryptocurrency landscape.

It is important to note that although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still indicates an overbought position, this alone does not indicate a decline in Bitcoin’s price. On the other hand, this could indicate a period of consolidation as the market recalibrates and absorbs recent gains.

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Ultimately, the outlook for Bitcoin appears bleak, with the cryptocurrency poised for potential gains in the short term. The market’s inherent volatility is a hallmark, but investors are alert to spot opportunities within volatility. Bitcoin’s performance is closely intertwined with US interest rate dynamics and the evolving status of financial instruments such as bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), which are expected to continue to dominate the imagination of market participants. The cryptocurrency market is an interesting arena, offering both challenges and opportunities to those trading in its complexities.

Daily chart of Bitcoin against the US Dollar

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Economy

3 Asian countries control 72% of global chip industry, and US earmarks $260 billion to regain leadership

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3 Asian countries control 72% of global chip industry, and US earmarks $260 billion to regain leadership

About 70% of the total manufacturing capacity is located in South Korea, Taiwan and China, with the US in fifth place after Japan, which will have a 13% share in 2022, the semiconductor lobby body revealed.

In 1990 the United States accounted for 37% of production capacity, Europe another 44%, and Japan came in third with 19%. The latter was considered a semiconductor powerhouse in the 1980s, accounting for 51% of global chip sales in 1988.

The Biden administration passed the Chips and Science Act in August 2022, allocating about $280 billion to push the lagging domestic chip industry in terms of research and manufacturing to regain its leadership.

Although 200 mm wafers are still widely manufactured and used, the chart focuses on 300 mm wafers introduced in 2001, capable of holding more wafers and believed to be more cost-effective.

In 2022, the new standard and its predecessor showed similar production levels, but these numbers are expected to change significantly in the coming years.

By 2026, SEMI expects monthly volume of 9.6 million 300 mm wafers, while 200 mm wafer production will reach 7.7 million per month. In the last category, China leads in terms of production capacity, followed by Japan and Taiwan in second and third place respectively.

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Bitcoin is jumping around 10 percent on the week

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Bitcoin is jumping around 10 percent on the week

Bitcoin rallied strongly this week as the world’s number one cryptocurrency hit its all-time high, with a recovery in financial assets benefiting from the dollar’s decline.

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The prospect of an end to the Federal Reserve’s continuing monetary tightening cycle for more than a year and a half has contributed to a recovery in all financial assets, including major indices in global stock markets. Gold hit an all-time high after breaking above $2,100 an ounce, while Bitcoin rose to its highest level in 2023. This year has been one of the windiest years for the cryptocurrency as it ranks ninth. The largest assets by market value rose 166 percent to reach $860 billion.

Other reports, expectations of an end to the monetary tightening cycle, and expectations of an earlier-than-expected shift in monetary policy contributed to bitcoin’s gains. The latest expectations indicate the possibility of a rate cut in the US after the end of the first quarter of 2024, compared to previous expectations, which indicates the possibility of a rate cut at the beginning of the third quarter of the year. The most important factors fueling Bitcoin’s rise are reports of the imminent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) submitted to major investment firms and related US bodies.

On the other hand, this year has not been without negative news for cryptocurrencies, especially the sanctions faced by one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Finans, which admitted early last month that it had lied in some of the allegations against it. US and private authorities were fined approximately $4.3 billion for anti-money laundering crimes, while the exchange’s founder, Changpeng Zhao, pleaded guilty and announced his resignation as CEO. Financial transfer.

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Bitcoin rose 9.97% to register around $43,801 during this week’s trading. Meanwhile, Ethereum price rose 6.56% to reach $2,345.

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