July 5, 2022

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The Turkish currency continues its record decline as fears of inflation rise

The Turkish currency continues its record decline as fears of inflation rise

To retreat Turkish lira exchange rateToday, Wednesday, the Turkish currency closed at .2 17.2 against the dollar, the second lowest price the Turkish currency has seen since the cancellation of 6 zeros in 2005, bringing the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira to 25% this year, opening around .2 13.2. Against the dollar.

Kasi Yildis, owner of a transfer company in Istanbul, says demand for the dollar has “increased significantly in the last two days” in connection with the results of the Turkish government meeting and the insistence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan said no Interest rate hike Banking.

Yildis justifies the hoarders’ fears Increase in inflation The exchange rate of the lira fell, “there were expectations of raising interest rates as in most countries of the world,” he said, noting that apart from buying the dollar, gold has become a safe haven for most Turks. “Strong”, especially after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and expectations for another rise, after inflation in the US crossed 8%.

The Turkish currency continues to depreciate, despite Turkish officials pointing out that good economic indicators, especially in the tourism and export sectors, will reach “unprecedented leaps this year”.

However, according to economist Khalil Usun, “the cancellation of interest rate hikes” affected the price of the lira. In addition to President Erdogan’s statement, Turkish Finance Minister Nourdin Nepti said. Milliyet newspaper yesterday, Turkey said “you are not considering raising or raising interest rates.”

Control the decline of the lira

Ozone says, “The Turkish currency price support scheme (linking lira deposits to the dollar) plays a very important role in the stability of the lira or its small fluctuations, and without this plan we would have seen the dollar exceed 20 lira. Reaches 73.5. “

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In addition to the bank interest rate instrument, Ozun expects government action to prevent the lira from continuing to depreciate, and “if the minimum wage is not raised – as we ask – we will face a new needle in the Turkish currency, and perhaps a further depreciation.”

The price of gold in the Turkish market rose today, to 2222 carats 9 922 per gram and the price of 24 carat one gram to 1005 pounds, which is the maximum price of gold in the Turkish market. Twenty years.

However, Turkish beliefs are based on the foreign exchange generated by the tourism and export sectors this year, which, according to observers, contributes to supply and demand balance in the market after demand for the dollar and gold.

Turkish economist Muslim O’Sullivan said, “Despite the global fuel and food crisis, his country’s economy is much better this year than in the last two years because the Turkish economy’s lists, tourism and export indicators are the best since 2019. Both sectors supply foreign exchange and supply. Balance the need. ” And it’s reducing the lira’s exchange rate, if not improving it. “

“He points to the benefits of” currency licenses “by increasing the flow of exports and attracting tourists, but currency licenses are not government policy to increase export and tourism figures, some say,” he said.

Continued growth?

He takes real indicators of the Turkish economy from rising, export and tourism figures, which he “runs with the same rapid growth as the dream of entering the Big Ten Club, but rising global energy prices. The most important obstacle to the economy is the energy import bill, which is close to $ 50 billion.”

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Ismail Coole, chairman of the Turkish Exporters’ Council, said at the opening of the “Istanbul 21st Forum” meeting a few days ago that he had estimated that the value of his country’s exports had increased from $ 250 billion to $ 300 billion this year. , Developments in world trade over the past two years have “opened the door for Turkey to create its own road map in the export sector.”

Kulla’s exports increased by 33% last year to $ 225 billion, revealing that it aims to increase its value to $ 400 billion by 2026 and $ 500 billion by 2030, and these goals can only be achieved if international conditions are met. Appropriate.

Turkey, which experts consider to benefit from its currency licenses, wants to attract more than 40 million tourists, approaching its peak year in 2019 with more than 50 million tourists.

Turkish Minister of Culture and Tourism Mohamed Nouri Erzoi has increased the number of tourists to 42 million tourists and $ 35 billion in revenue this year, according to recent reports to local television, which the ministry has been pursuing since 2019. The ministry has intensified incentives to develop various strategies related to the tourism sector, but also to hold festivals and thousands of art events this year.

Concerns about the quality of life of the Turks after the highest level of inflation in twenty years due to the fall in the price of the Turkish lira, which viewers believe began its declining history on the night of July 15, 2016, with a failed coup attempt.

Landing route

The small decline continued in 2016, ending the year at about 3.5 lira against the dollar, but in 2017, beginning with local political events, parliament debated constitutional amendments that would increase the powers of the president and move the Turkish system towards the presidential system. , Closed at 3.8 lira per dollar, following Turkish tensions with the United States.

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In early 2018, after tensions with the United States eased somewhat and the value of export and tourism revenues increased, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira returned to the threshold of 3.7 lira.

But in mid-2018, after the conviction of American pastor “Branson”, on the night of August 10, at a time of rising tensions between Ankara and Washington, the lira began to lose 19% of its value. President Trump has doubled his obligations on Turkish steel and aluminum, calling on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “If you have the money to save dollars, euros or gold, go to the banks to convert it into Turkish lira. A national struggle.”

Starting in 2019 at the dollar price above 5 Turkish lira, it fell below 7 lira in April of the same year, before ending the year up to 5.8 lira against the US currency.

Also the Corona continued its journey of decline in 2020, which was accompanied by a decline in exports and tourism, so the lira started at around 6 lira against the dollar and was recorded at a low price in October 2020. Fell to 8.5 lira against the dollar.

The exchange rate rose to 7.4 against the dollar at the beginning of last year, ending above 13 pounds against the dollar. The latest interest rate has been affected by a reduction of 100 basis points to 14%.