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The Turkish lira returns to its sharp decline after a brief recovery



The Turkish lira returns to its sharp decline after a brief recovery

The Turkish lira returns to its sharp decline after a brief recovery

Driven by inflation data and the dimming effect of government subsidies

Friday – 9th Al-Hijjah 1443 Hijri – 08 July 2022 AD Issue no. [

The Turkish lira fell to 17.24 lira against the dollar in Thursday trading (Reuters).

Ankara: Abdel Razek said

The Turkish lira returned strongly to its losing streak after a brief rally led by government support that faded after the release of inflation data for June (June).
The Turkish lira fell to 17.24 lira to the dollar in Thursday trade, its lowest level since June 24, when Turkish authorities decided to curb corporate borrowing, bringing the lira to 16.37 lira. to the dollar, from 17.32 lira to the dollar.
And the Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Authority in Turkey intervened in a new attempt to save the lira, which recorded the worst position among emerging market currencies, by barring companies with foreign currency assets of more than 15 million and foreign currency assets of more than 10% of their total assets from taking out new loans in the local currency.
The Turkish lira has now touched its lowest historical level recorded on December 20, at 18.4 lira to the dollar, after inflation rose to 36 percent at the time, and last June it recorded 78.62 percent year-on-year, the highest level of inflation. Since 1998.
The Turkish lira lost 44 percent of its value last year and 26 percent of its value since the start of the year. Traders in Turkish markets are awaiting the implementation of a package of new structural measures announced by Turkish Finance Minister Nuredin Nefti after inflation data was announced on July 4, and after government rescue efforts, most recently an additional increase to the minimum wage, failed.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists on lowering interest rates, which he considers the root of all evil and the cause of high inflation, contrary to accepted economic principles, with the aim of encouraging increased production and exports.
The trade deficit widened 184.3 percent year-on-year to $8.16 billion in June, with energy import costs continuing to rise, contributing to the widening deficit.
The trade deficit in the first half of the year was $51.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 142.5 percent.
Two days ago, the Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance, Nuredin Nefti, announced the continuation of efforts that represent the government’s main priority in the context of fighting inflation. Including 11 measures taken by the government in the wake of the huge inflation wave the country is experiencing.
And the agency “Standard & Poor’s” international credit ratings warned that inflation related to the weak value of the Turkish lira will continue to affect consumer spending, with the annual inflation rate expected to remain above 70 percent until the end. This year, and by more than 20 percent by the end of this year, and by the middle of next year, the Russian war in Ukraine and slowing growth in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom will affect Turkish exports, which have been the most important growth drivers for Turkey until recently.


Economy of Turkey

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Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in a year



Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in a year

Economic data released today on Friday showed that the euro zone’s core inflation rate fell to its lowest level in nearly a year this month, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting to assess. The consequences of an unprecedented campaign to raise interest rates throughout the past.

European statistics agency Eurostat reported today that sales, excluding highly volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.5% this September, while analysts polled by Bloomberg News had expected a drop of 4.8%, compared with 5.3%. In the month, in the past.

At the same time, the headline inflation rate eased to 4.3% this month from 5.2% last August, the lowest level in nearly two years and well below expectations, thanks to a fall in energy prices. Accelerating rate of rise in prices of services.

The data released today is a strong indication that core inflation, a key measure for the central bank’s monetary policymakers, is on a downward path following a period of statistical deterioration over the summer months.

Despite the decline, general and core inflation rates have been more than twice the central bank’s target of 2% annually.

At the same time, there is a wide disparity in inflation rates between the euro zone’s twenty member states, with the inflation rate in Germany falling to its lowest level in two years this month, while the rate in Spain rose by more than 3. % again.

The current September consumer price inflation rate showed a new decline, reaching its lowest level in more than a year and a half, with the Italian statistics office saying the inflation rate fell to 5.3 for the current month. % y/y compared to 5.4% last month, while the core inflation rate, excluding highly volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.6% this month, down from 4.8% last month.

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Meta unveils new artificial intelligence products



Meta unveils new artificial intelligence products

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of MetaPlatforms, has introduced a group of new products powered by artificial intelligence, including smart glasses that can answer questions and broadcast live on Facebook, as well as “bot” programs to create images and an advanced headset for virtual reality. .

Zuckerberg described the products as bridging the virtual and real worlds, and asserted that low-cost or free artificial intelligence in what Meta offered could be integrated into daily routines.

The MetaQuest virtual reality headset is one of the most popular in the burgeoning virtual reality industry, and company executives described it as the best value in the industry, marking the imminent launch of an expensive headset from Apple.

Speaking from the central courtyard at Meta’s sprawling campus in Silicon Valley, Zuckerberg said Meta’s new generation of Ray-Ban smart glasses will launch on October 17 for $299.

The device will have a new assistant from Meta that works with artificial intelligence and will be able to live-stream what the user sees on Facebook and Instagram, a feat compared to the previous generation’s ability to take pictures.

Earlier during the presentation, Zuckerberg said that the latest mixed reality headset (Quest) will start rolling out on October 10.

Zuckerberg’s statements came at the MetaConnect conference, the social media company’s biggest event of the year and the first to be held in person since the start of the Covid pandemic.

It launched the first consumer-oriented generative artificial intelligence products, in which a chatbot (meta AI chatbot) can generate text responses and realistic images.

Zuckerberg emphasized: “It’s not just about answering inquiries. It’s about helping people do things for entertainment and interacting with the people around you.”

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The US economy is between the trap of recession and stubborn inflation



The US economy is between the trap of recession and stubborn inflation

Debate continues among officials and big banks over whether the US economy will fall into recession, as analysts expect the economy to slip into recession as it faces stubborn inflation and raises interest rates to record highs. .

Expected growth

Data for the final reading of US GDP showed the economy grew by about 2.1%, which is the same as the second reading. In the second quarter of 2022. Fixed income investments showed a growth of around 5.2% in the three-month period ended June, compared to 3.1% in the first quarter.

US exports fell 9.3% in the second quarter, and imports fell 7.6%. As for personal consumption expenditures, they rose about 0.8%, compared with a 3.8% increase in the first quarter.

A survey showed that business activity in the U.S. is close to stagnating in August 2023, with growth hitting its slowest level since last February, as demand for new business in the largest services sector has weakened.


Standard & Poor’s Global said – in its preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index for the US, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors – the reading fell to 50.4 points in August from 52 in July; This marks the biggest decline since November 2022.

Although August’s reading showed growth for the seventh month in a row, it was slightly above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction, in light of weak demand for manufactured goods and services.

For months, a strong labor market and strong consumer spending have eased recession fears, and both factors led to an upward revision in GDP growth expectations, but the data paint a less optimistic picture of the economy.

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Recession is possible

Abhilash Narayan, director and chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, believes the probability of the US economy entering recession next year is 50 to 60%.

In an interview with “Eqtisad Al-Sharq”, Narayan cited three reasons for this, the first being that consumer spending, which has been a fundamental factor in the strength of the US economy, will slow down as savings run out, the second is the risk of a government shutdown in October, which will limit government spending, and the third is that the 18 Date strong interest rate hike. Last month, the Federal Reserve showed its negative impact on US economic activity in 2024.

“Healthy” mode

On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US economy shows no signs of an imminent slowdown.

Bloomberg News quoted Yellen as saying in an interview with CNBC last week that “I don’t see any signs that the economy is headed for a recession,” and that while the labor market may have contracted somewhat, the market is still there. A “healthy” situation. Industrial production is increasing and “inflation is falling.”

Yellen said she is watching for several developments, including the potential impact on consumer spending as student loan payments resume after a multi-year hiatus.

He noted that despite the rise in interest rates, credit is still available and “it has made a difference in some sectors”. He also said that he expects crude oil prices to stabilize.

Interest rates

Commenting on the decision to stabilize US interest rates in September, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the bank was ready to raise interest rates at any time to push annual US inflation to 2%.

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The chairman of the Reserve Bank emphasized that despite factors beyond the central bank’s control, there is a good chance that strong interest rate hikes will not push the US economy into recession.

Moderate depression

Central bank experts expect the potential economic consequences of recent bank developments to lead to a “moderate recession” later this year. Bank failures can make borrowing more difficult, reduce spending and impact economic activity, meaning lenders may tighten their standards in the wake of recent bank failures.

Real estate sector

Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose last week to their highest level since 2000, negatively impacting already low home-buying applications.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 10 basis points to 7.41% in the week ended Sept. 22, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. As a result, the home purchase order index fell to 144.8, one of the lowest readings in decades.

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