Debate continues among officials and big banks over whether the US economy will fall into recession, as analysts expect the economy to slip into recession as it faces stubborn inflation and raises interest rates to record highs. .

Expected growth

Data for the final reading of US GDP showed the economy grew by about 2.1%, which is the same as the second reading. In the second quarter of 2022. Fixed income investments showed a growth of around 5.2% in the three-month period ended June, compared to 3.1% in the first quarter.

US exports fell 9.3% in the second quarter, and imports fell 7.6%. As for personal consumption expenditures, they rose about 0.8%, compared with a 3.8% increase in the first quarter.

A survey showed that business activity in the U.S. is close to stagnating in August 2023, with growth hitting its slowest level since last February, as demand for new business in the largest services sector has weakened.

PMI

Standard & Poor’s Global said – in its preliminary composite purchasing managers’ index for the US, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors – the reading fell to 50.4 points in August from 52 in July; This marks the biggest decline since November 2022.

Although August’s reading showed growth for the seventh month in a row, it was slightly above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction, in light of weak demand for manufactured goods and services.

For months, a strong labor market and strong consumer spending have eased recession fears, and both factors led to an upward revision in GDP growth expectations, but the data paint a less optimistic picture of the economy.

Recession is possible

Abhilash Narayan, director and chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, believes the probability of the US economy entering recession next year is 50 to 60%.

In an interview with “Eqtisad Al-Sharq”, Narayan cited three reasons for this, the first being that consumer spending, which has been a fundamental factor in the strength of the US economy, will slow down as savings run out, the second is the risk of a government shutdown in October, which will limit government spending, and the third is that the 18 Date strong interest rate hike. Last month, the Federal Reserve showed its negative impact on US economic activity in 2024.

“Healthy” mode

On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US economy shows no signs of an imminent slowdown.

Bloomberg News quoted Yellen as saying in an interview with CNBC last week that “I don’t see any signs that the economy is headed for a recession,” and that while the labor market may have contracted somewhat, the market is still there. A “healthy” situation. Industrial production is increasing and “inflation is falling.”

Yellen said she is watching for several developments, including the potential impact on consumer spending as student loan payments resume after a multi-year hiatus.

He noted that despite the rise in interest rates, credit is still available and “it has made a difference in some sectors”. He also said that he expects crude oil prices to stabilize.

Interest rates

Commenting on the decision to stabilize US interest rates in September, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the bank was ready to raise interest rates at any time to push annual US inflation to 2%.

The chairman of the Reserve Bank emphasized that despite factors beyond the central bank’s control, there is a good chance that strong interest rate hikes will not push the US economy into recession.

Moderate depression

Central bank experts expect the potential economic consequences of recent bank developments to lead to a “moderate recession” later this year. Bank failures can make borrowing more difficult, reduce spending and impact economic activity, meaning lenders may tighten their standards in the wake of recent bank failures.

Real estate sector

Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose last week to their highest level since 2000, negatively impacting already low home-buying applications.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 10 basis points to 7.41% in the week ended Sept. 22, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. As a result, the home purchase order index fell to 144.8, one of the lowest readings in decades.

Assisi Real Estate Development Company revealed its plans to develop the “Azizi Venice” project in the “Dubai South” area at a cost of around 30 billion dirhams, noting that the new luxury complex is inspired by the Italian city of Venice. It is located entirely within a crystal clear lake, in which swimming is possible.

The project was launched last night at a grand function in Dubai attended by over 10,000 people.

The new project will offer 24 million square feet of space on a 15 million square foot land, apart from the “Opera”, a temperature-controlled “luxury pedestrian boulevard” and a wide range of other amenities.

Azizi assumes lead developer responsibility for the construction of buildings, roads and all infrastructure for the mixed-use project, which will have more than 30,000 residential units distributed across nearly 100 residential complexes, in addition to more than 400 villas and luxury homes.

“Azizi Venice” is distinguished by its large pool with many beaches surrounding all its residential buildings, villas and luxury houses, in addition to designated areas for entertainment, retail and various commercial activities.

The beaches are surrounded by desalinated and filtered water, as well as a promenade that includes an eight-kilometer cycling and running track, yoga facilities and other sports activities, restaurants and a group of specialty shops. Apart from shops, brands and restaurants featuring international cuisine, there are three-story buildings on both sides of Assisi Boulevard.

In addition to a private hotel located on an island in the middle of the lake, the project will offer two five-star hotels owned and managed by Assisi at its entrances.

“Azizi Venice” will have a full-service hospital, a kindergarten, high school to grade schools, and four kilometers of main road, and will be surrounded by additional options of restaurants and shopping outlets.

Mirwais Azizi, founder and chairman of the board of directors of Azizi Real Estate Development, pointed out that “Assisi Venice is a unique complex and destination in Dubai and the Middle East region in general,” adding, “The new project will change that. It is home to around 80,000 residents, and more than 80,000 people are tourists.” Fascinating place.” 30 thousand visitors daily.

Electric vehicle sales across the globe have seen significant growth recently, and amid fierce competition among vehicle manufacturers of this type, most countries are taking rapid steps in adopting the electric vehicle option to capture a larger share of this promising market.

The latest data shows that the number of electric passenger cars on the world’s roads reached 27 million cars by the beginning of 2023, and this number is expected to rise to 100 million cars by 2026, with more and more customers adopting clean methods. Transportation.

A number of factors have helped the electric car market flourish, as a previous report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance expected the number of electric vehicles on the road to reach approx. 731 million cars by 2040, or 46 percent of the number of vehicles on the road at that time.

Losing an important element in the world of leadership

According to Bloomberg, electric car sales are expected to exceed 10.5 million cars in 2022, up nearly 50 percent from 2021, and reach 22 million units in 2025.

But the growing reliance on electric vehicles is causing many drivers to miss an important part of the driving world, which is the sound produced by the engine in traditional cars. An electric car does not emit engine noise, much to the chagrin of car enthusiasts who believe that the quietness of electric cars leaves the driver with nothing to feel.

Biggest Disadvantages of Electric Cars

The absolute silence of electric cars has become one of the biggest drawbacks that these vehicles suffer from, not only according to the opinions of drivers who love the sounds of car engines, but also according to road traffic safety authorities in many countries, which has provoked. Some of them issue a law that seems surprising, however, that electric cars produced in the future must have clear sounds that can be distinguished from a distance.

For example, the European Union considers electric cars to be too quiet to pose a danger to road users, particularly pedestrians, cyclists and other cars, who sometimes sense the presence of a car nearby. Not only by its sound, but also by its sight, which prompted the European Union to pass legislation in 2019 that would force electric cars to “make noise” to attract the attention of pedestrians.

Under European law, all electric car manufacturers must provide their vehicles with a device that emits sounds similar to the sounds of traditional engines while driving on the road, and this sound also works when the car turns.

In turn, regulators in the United States insist that electric cars emit sounds that let pedestrians know they are approaching, and this is welcomed by the world’s stray animal protection associations, which believe that electric cars emit sounds. Also contributes to alerting animals on roads.In rural areas.

Currently, various electric car manufacturers are intensifying their efforts to provide their cars with systems that emit fake engine sounds. Famous musicians.

Exaggerated strange sounds

Dr. Hasna Harfouch, a series columnist on electric cars, told the “Iqtizad Sky News Arabia” website that the primary goal of laws and regulations enacted in some countries is to force car manufacturers. Electric vehicles emit fake sounds, ensuring safety and reducing risks is the first goal. Traffic accidents by warning pedestrians, bicyclists and other drivers that a car is approaching Previous statistics collected by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration showed that pedestrians and bicyclists were twice as likely to be injured in collisions with an electric car. Also, another study found that quieter cars cause 40 percent of accidents. .

According to Harfouche, many electric car manufacturers now offer a range of models of fake engine sounds to add life to the car’s dynamics, with these models shocking passengers in terms of amplification like some cars. For example, it can emit a sound similar to the sound of a fighter jet or racing car engines, which prompts many electric car drivers to describe the sounds of their cars as strange and funny because they are exaggerated and do not reflect the car’s true power.

Harfouch explains that the sounds produced by electric cars are not produced by the car itself, but by an audio simulation system that relies on a loudspeaker, in addition to the safety element, companies are trying to bring back its flavor. A thing of the past for some drivers who don’t have experience driving gas-powered cars.As a society that communicates using sounds, the lack of engine noise in electric cars has created a sense of emptiness for many experienced drivers. Years to the sounds of their cars.

Noise is not a negative factor

For his part, in an interview with the website “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia”, Muhammad Musa, an expert in the automobile trade, said that China, the United States, Britain, the European Union and Japan are among the countries that support this policy. Electric cars that make artificial noise act as a warning to pedestrians, the advantage of the absence of sound in electric vehicles is considered a disadvantage, especially when these cars travel at low speeds in residential areas, which is not there. Pedestrians have a car coming toward them or near them, which may pose a danger to them.

According to Musa, car noise can be a concern for the comfort of residents in areas where vehicles are always moving, but the fact that electric cars do not emit sounds has turned the situation from a nuisance to a hazard for pedestrians. It showed that noise is not a negative factor, which is what I felt. Traffic safety authorities in several countries have already insisted on the use of sounds to warn passers-by, and companies such as Fiat, Renault, BMW, Mercedes and Tesla are working on designing fake sounds compatible with their models.

Looks like a lot of fun

Based on estimates, the number of electric vehicles traveling on the world’s roads is expected to reach 731 million cars by 2040, and Moussa stressed that this would be significantly reflected if all these cars were “quiet”. The increase in the number of collision accidents around the world indicates that manufacturers are becoming more interested in the issue of car sound, as some companies are considering offering fake engine sound systems as a kit that can be fitted to previously sold electric cars.

Musa noted that some of the sounds made by electric cars don’t necessarily resemble the sound of a regular car, as there are cars that sound closer to the sound of a broom, and that makes the situation more fun.

This category dominates the global automobile market