ACCA survey on global trade reveals ongoing business confidence in prospects for international commerce
Despite the significant impact of US President Trump’s tariffs on trade flows, business leaders remain broadly optimistic about their companies’ global trade outlook.
During one of the most turbulent periods for global trade in decades, business leaders and finance professionals were surveyed and interviewed for a major report, The outlook for global trade: perspectives from business leaders, by the leading global accountancy body ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants).
While 85% of respondents expressed concern about the effects of tariffs on their organisations, the findings revealed an unexpectedly positive outlook from company leaders. The survey showed that 56% of respondents expect their organisations to increase their global trade ‘significantly’ or ‘somewhat’ over the next three to five years, whereas 23% anticipate trade will decrease ‘somewhat’ or ‘significantly’.
C-suite executives were found to be even more confident, with 38% and 29% of respondents respectively expecting their firms’ global trade to increase ‘significantly’ or ‘somewhat’.
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist, ACCA, said: “2025 has been a monumental year for international trade, with the US raising its import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s. The global economy has so far proved more resilient than expected to the disruptions in global trade, but the risk is for some slowing over coming quarters. Nevertheless, the survey results suggest that business leaders appear relatively optimistic about their enterprises’ medium-term trade prospects, and they are overwhelmingly positive about the benefits of an open global trading system.”
From ACCA’s interviews with business leaders and policy experts, it emerged that while they do not foresee an outright decline in global trade, rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions are seen as significant headwinds to its future growth. Tariffs were not considered the sole obstacle to international trade, with sanctions also highlighted as a key challenge.
Unsurprisingly, ‘geopolitical tensions’, ‘international or civil conflicts/wars’ and ‘protectionist policies in advanced economies’ were cited as the top three risks. Business leaders also identified the top three opportunities driving their optimism: the leading one, named by half of all respondents, was to ‘use technology (e.g. AI) to help facilitate global trade’, followed by ‘diversifying production, investment, or location of suppliers’ and ‘gain access to new technologies’.
The survey underlined that recent shifts in US trade policy could have a profound impact on future global trade patterns. It found that 60% of organisations have already moved some of their production, investment or suppliers in recent years, with 61% indicating they are likely to do so again in the coming years.
The research also highlighted a further concern: economists warn that a more fragmented and less open global trading system could drive prices upwards, a finding echoed by the survey results. Around 35% of respondents expect their organisation’s costs to rise by more than 10% due to changes in global trade in the years ahead, while 46% predict increases of up to 10%. Meanwhile, 11% believe costs will remain unchanged, and only 6% expect them to decrease.