July 1, 2022

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"Citigroup" and "Goldman Sachs" suggest recession, and "UPS" excludes

“Citigroup” and “Goldman Sachs” suggest recession, and “UPS” excludes

Expectations of a pending recession continued to grow on Wall Street this week. Citigroup raised the chances of a global recession to 50%, citing data that consumers are beginning to recoup spending.

Goldman Sachs believes the recession in the US economy is growing, saying the risks are “high and high”

“The main reasons are that our core growth path is now low and we are more concerned that the central bank will be forced to respond aggressively to higher core inflation and consumer inflation expectations, even if energy prices rise further and activity falls sharply,” the bank said. Said in a note to customers.

UBS, meanwhile, said in a statement to customers on Tuesday that it did not anticipate a recession in the US or the world in 2022 or 2023 at its core, “but it is clear that the risks of a hard landing are increasing.”

“Even if the economy really slips into recession, it should remain shallow, given the strength of consumer and bank balances,” UBS added.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that US Federal Reserve officials were not trying to contain the recession, which is the highest level in four decades.

When asked during a half-year testimony in Congress, a member of the US Senate Banking Committee said, “We did not try and did not think it would trigger a recession.”

Recent rising fears of a Wall Street recession have weighed on stocks. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told Congress that the central bank has a “commitment” to curb inflation, which is at a 40-year high.

“At the Federal Reserve, we understand the difficulties that cause high inflation,” the Federal Reserve chairman told the Senate Banking Committee. “We are deeply committed to reducing inflation again and we are moving quickly to do so.”

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Conclusive evidence

Powell added that the central bank would stay on track until it saw “solid evidence that inflation is low.” Achieving a smooth landing without an economic downturn “has become remarkably difficult,” he said.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points last week and points to the possibility of that level rising again next month. Last week the central bank shifted to a more intense anti-inflation stance, warning investors that they were worried that the central bank would risk a recession rather than continue to withstand high inflation.

“Inflation is the biggest risk to financial assets, and Jerome Powell has made his position very clear: the central bank will continue to raise interest rates until inflation begins to fall,” wrote Robert Shine, chief investment officer at Blank Shine Wealth Management. Until then, it is difficult to imagine a continued increase in risky assets.

“Tight monetary conditions will be a headache for financial markets until the federal green light is given,” Shin said. (Agencies)