A new report released by United Nations climate experts predicts that global warming will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, which is 10 years earlier than the last estimate made three years ago.
Three months before COP26 (COP26) in Glasgow, the first part of the IPCC report was released yesterday, claiming that humans were “undoubtedly responsible” for climate change, and that they had “no choice but to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions if they wanted to control the fall.”
First Assessment Report
This first assessment report, approved in seven years by delegates from 195 countries on Friday, reviews five scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic.
In all cases, global warming will be 1.5 degrees Celsius before 2030, 10 years earlier than the Commission’s previous estimate for 2018, compared to the pre-industrial period.
By 2050, even if the world succeeds in significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it will continue to rise above this limit, one of the limits of the Paris Climate Agreement.
If this emission is not sharply reduced, the two-degree Celsius limit will be exceeded in the current century, and this would indicate the failure of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which suggests that warming should be less than two degrees Celsius. If possible, 1.5 degrees.
Just the beginning
While the planet has warmed to 1.1 degrees Celsius so far, its aftermath, a fire that has spread across the world in the western US, Greece and Turkey, has inundated parts of Germany and China, and Canada has reached record temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius.
“For more than 30 years, you have spoken to us about the dangers of global warming,” said Inger Anderson, director of the United Nations Environment Program.
Despite the 1.5 degree Celsius increase, it warns of an unprecedented increase in the magnitude, frequency and timing of heat waves, floods and other severe weather events based on the time of year that hit the affected areas.
“This report scares anyone who reads it,” said climate scientist Dave Ree. “It shows where we came from and where we are going with climate change: in the pit we are deepening.”
In the face of this dark future, calls for action are on the rise, and all eyes are on Glasgow, where world leaders will meet in November.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson conducts his country’s COP: “We know what we need to do to reduce coal temperatures, which means we need to leave coal and move to renewable, nature conservation and climate funding.” John Kerry, the US special envoy for climate affairs, stressed: “We cannot wait. All nations must take bold action.”
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the report “should announce the end of coal and fossil energy sources before destroying our planet.”
It heats up to 4 to 5 degrees at current speeds
Carbon dioxide emissions should be halved to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, Guterres said after the “red alert for humanity” “we can not wait, there is no excuse.”
But at this point, only half the governments have revised their greenhouse gas emissions obligations, and previous commitments made after the Paris Agreement would cause the planet to heat up to three degrees Celsius if respected, but at current rates the world is moving four degrees Celsius or higher. For.
In the midst of its gloomy predictions, it was spoken that the intergovernmental panel on climate change should have confidence. Under ideal conditions, by cutting off the heat exhaust and absorbing more carbon, the temperature will drop below 1.5 C by the end of the century. Dioxide rather than gas exhaust
The third part of the report deals with potential solutions to reduce emissions and is expected to be released in March 2022.
The second part of the report, which covers the aftermath of climate change, is due out in February 2022, and shows how life on Earth will change in 30 years or so, according to an introductory copy by Agency France-Press.
Irreversible effects
The report stressed that some of the effects of climate warming were “irreversible” under any circumstances, and that sea levels would continue to rise “for centuries, even thousands of years” under the influence of melting polar ice. The oceans, which have risen by 20 centimeters since 1900, are expected to rise by about 50 centimeters by 2100.
For the first time, the team points to the inability to “rule out” the occurrence of “extremes” such as the melting of Antarctica ice or the death of forests, a climate system that could lead to drastic and irreversible change.
But this is not a reason to abandon the fight against climate change, but rather, according to scientists and activists, every part of the degrees Celsius affects the whole environment and enhances its effects.
Young activist Greta Dunberg said in a tweet: “We have to be brave and make decisions based on scientific evidence. We can avoid even worse consequences, but if we continue in the same way it will not happen. Consider the crisis.”
Humans are “undoubtedly responsible” for climate change, and “have no choice but to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions” if they want to minimize the effects.
If emissions are not drastically reduced, the 2 ° C limit will be higher in the current century, and this could indicate the failure of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The report confirms that some of the effects of climate warming are “irreversible,” and that under the influence of polar ice melt, sea levels will continue to rise “for centuries or thousands of years.”
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