May 29, 2023

Dubai Week

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For the first time in human history, an international organization warns of temperature extremes

According to the Financial Times, the World Meteorological Organization predicts that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time in human history.

The newspaper reported on Wednesday that scientists have made a stunning conclusion that the annual average global surface temperature rise will be 66 percent higher than pre-industrial levels of 1.5 degrees Celsius for “at least” one year by 2027. .

The report said the probability of reaching this outcome was “increasing over time”, with the probability of a temporary breach of the 1.5°C limit rising to 66 per cent from 48 per cent a year ago and “close to zero” in 2015.

The report, compiled by researchers from 11 institutions worldwide, including Europe, North America, Japan and China, covers the years 2023 to 2027.

The authors said there is a 98 percent chance that the temperature rise recorded in 2016, 1.28 degrees Celsius, will be exceeded in one of five years, and that the next half decade will be the warmest overall.

They added that this is the first time in human history that we have come this close.

According to the paper, the expected return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which includes warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean, by the end of this year will lead to an increase in global temperatures.

And temperatures in the Arctic are expected to rise three times faster than the global average, as melting ice reduces its ability to reflect the sun and warm more than anywhere else.

Also, the United Nations warned in a statement that the warming of the El Niño event, combined with human-induced climate change, could push global temperatures to unknown levels. This will have long-term implications for health, food security, water management and the environment, he explained.

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According to the United Nations website, the effect of the La Niña event over the past three years temporarily curbed the long-term warming trend, but the event ended last March. Despite this, the average global temperature in 2022 was 1.15 degrees above pre-industrial rates.

An El Niño event typically leads to an increase in global temperatures in the year following its development, so the World Meteorological Organization expects its effects to be felt by 2024.