The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast UAE rainfall through 6 August, with convective clouds forming over parts of the country as a surface low-pressure system extends from the east and a weak upper-air low-pressure system adds to the effect.
Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM, said El Niño is likely behind the summer rainfall. The climate pattern, he said, may be shifting wind and rain paths across the region.
El Niño and the UAE rainfall pattern
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that recurs every two to seven years and typically lasts close to a year. It warms the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, altering global wind and rain patterns in the process.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027 at 97%, indicating the pattern is expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026.
Heavy rain was already visible on 2 August, with footage from Fujairah’s Masafi showing rain over vehicles’ windshields. Temperatures have remained extreme alongside the wet spells: the NCM recorded 50°C in Abu Dhabi’s Al Shawamekh at 2.30pm on 1 August.
Conditions forecast through 6 August
Through the advisory period, the NCM says skies will be partly cloudy in general, with convective cloud formation possible to the east and south of the country. Showers are most likely in the afternoon hours.
Winds will blow from the southeast to northeast, light to moderate, with speeds of 10 to 25 km/h and gusts reaching 40 km/h at times. Blowing dust is possible when winds freshen. Seas will be slight in both the Arabian Gulf and the Oman Sea.
The pattern holds across the multi-day outlook: convective activity remains possible over internal areas, with conditions largely consistent from day to day through 6 August.
The World Meteorological Organization has noted that above-average temperatures are expected across much of the world even as El Niño evolves, meaning any rain in the UAE is unlikely to bring a sustained break from the heat.
The NCM advisory covers conditions as of 3 August 2026. Residents in eastern and southern areas face the highest probability of rainfall, while internal areas may also see cloud and showers extending from the coast.
The current advisory runs to 6 August, after which the NCM is expected to issue an updated outlook.
