Wednesday, June 19, 2024

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The Chinese economy… shows signs of progress and faltering at the same time

Some economic indicators in China have picked up in the past month, while others have seen stability, at a time when Beijing is struggling with its real estate sector, raising concerns about a financial crisis that could hit the second-largest economy. the world

Ban Gongsheng, president of the People’s Bank of China (central bank), allayed fears about the country’s economy and said there were signs of improvement, pointing to a recovery in the real estate sector, which has been plagued by bankruptcies and debt defaults. of major companies.

Sheng explained that the recovery helps curb local government debt risks, adding that economic indicators including industrial production and service activity have shown positive trends.

During a speech at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco, he said the real estate market in many Chinese regions was showing signs of recovery after the easing of mortgage rules, and that local governments’ credit risks in China were structural and generally manageable.

He believes that the eastern provinces, which are more economically developed, can solve the debt problems of their local governments by themselves. As for provinces in the central and western regions, they can restructure their financial bases, sell assets to pay off debts and negotiate with financial institutions.

Given the linkages of the Chinese economy with all economies in the world, the world fears a financial crisis hitting the world’s second largest economy, which could mean a new shock to an already fragile global economy.

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Therefore, the Chinese economy has always been regarded as an important and powerful driver of the world economy and its related economies, which gives momentum to the financial indicators released by China among the business community around the world.

According to Sheng, the youth employment rate has improved significantly, indicating the stability of employment in general. China’s fiscal spending also increased at a brisk but reasonable pace, while local governments’ issuance of private bonds, a key source of infrastructure financing, increased.

He emphasized that risks threatening global financial stability are increasing as uncertainties related to monetary policy increase due to complex trends in major economies.

Financial indicators

An index that tracks the growth of the wholesale goods market in China rose slightly last September, driven by rising demand in the market, data released by the China Logistics and Purchasing Association showed.

China’s aggregate goods index was reported at 103.6 percent last month, up 0.9 percentage points from last August.

A reading above 100 indicates expansion and growth, while a reading below 100 reflects contraction.

The increase highlights growing market demand and an improved manufacturing and business environment, the union said. As policy stimulus gradually takes effect, China’s wholesale commodity market is expected to maintain stable and good growth momentum in October.

The data also showed that China’s logistics sector saw steady performance last September due to rising demand and expectations in the market.

The country’s logistics market performance index reached 53.5 percent last month, up 3.2 percentage points from last August, the federation said.

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He Hui, the Union’s chief economist, attributed the rise to the impact of policy incentives and the gradual recovery of market demand and expectations, adding that the logistics sector is likely to see a steady recovery in the future.

Earlier data for the third quarter of this year included some promising numbers supporting the stabilization of economic activity, with improved factory activity and a moderate decline in exports as Beijing introduced a stimulus policy and eased restrictive real estate policies. Next week’s releases on industrial production, retail sales and unemployment are expected to show how widespread the stabilization is.

According to Xiao Jiaqi, head of research at Crédit Agricole CIP, it is important to monitor the activity data coming in September. While the numbers send a message that the Chinese economy may be showing more signs of stability, uncertainty remains about the trajectory of the real estate sector.

On the other hand, there are still questions about the additional stimulus provided by China to support the economy. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China will set the interest rate on the one-year medium-term credit facility, the key interest rate. Economists widely expect it to remain unchanged for now, though many expect it to taper by the end of 2023.

According to Bloomberg, China is considering increasing its budget deficit this year by issuing more debt to spend on infrastructure. The country’s sovereign wealth fund is also considering creating a state-backed stabilization fund to boost confidence in the stock market after it recently bought about $65 million worth of shares in the country’s biggest banks.

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Data scheduled for release on Wednesday is likely to show a moderate rebound in GDP growth on a quarterly basis, although year-on-year comparisons may be less positive. The pace of expansion in the July-September period may have slowed to 4.5 percent from a year ago, below Beijing’s annual growth target of about 5 percent.

Meanwhile, the Bank of China (BOC) announced that it had succeeded in issuing 1.6 billion yuan (about $222.92 million) of yuan-denominated external green bonds in the foreign market. According to the bank, the two-year bonds were issued by the bank’s Frankfurt branch, and funds raised through the bond issue will be used to support green projects.

Future activity

China’s futures market recorded active trading in terms of transaction volume and value last month, according to the China Futures Association.

Data released by the association on Sunday showed that the volume of total transactions increased by 28.05 percent year-on-year and the value of transactions in the market increased by 19.13 percent year-on-year last September. 51.48 trillion yuan (about 7.17 trillion dollars) .

Compared to last year, the volume and value of transactions increased by 30.49 percent and 6.13 percent respectively in the first nine months of the current year, the association said.

Nadia Barnett
Nadia Barnett
"Award-winning beer geek. Extreme coffeeaholic. Introvert. Avid travel specialist. Hipster-friendly communicator."

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