Dubai gold prices climbed Dh6.75 per gram on Thursday as renewed US-Iran fighting pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, then pulled them back out again on inflation and rate-hike fears.
The 24K gold rate opened at Dh535 per gram, up from Dh528.25 at Wednesday’s close, according to Dubai market data. The 22K rate rose to Dh495.25, 21K to Dh475, 18K to Dh407, and 14K to Dh317.50 per gram.
Globally, spot gold was trading at $4,431.78 per ounce, a gain of 1.43 per cent as of 9.10am Thursday. Silver was up 1.69 per cent at $65.97 per ounce.
How US-Iran tensions are moving Dubai gold prices
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer of Century Financial, said US-Iran tensions and fears over disruptions to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are pressuring the metal by stoking inflation expectations.
Those expectations are pushing investors to reprice rate risk. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.818 per cent, its highest level since November 2023, according to CNBC, which conflicts slightly with the earlier report’s reference to October 2023 as the prior peak month; either way, the level was the highest in roughly three years. The dollar also pushed to a two-week high.
Brent crude futures for September settlement peaked above $95 per barrel, the highest since early June, as the conflict intensified and shipping risks in the strait mounted.
An Iranian parliamentary committee was reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar US, Israeli and other vessels it deemed hostile from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. Oil prices rose more than $3 a barrel on that news alone.
Why higher yields are weighing on gold despite the conflict
The dynamic is not straightforward. Gold typically benefits from geopolitical stress, but the same conflict is driving oil prices and inflation expectations higher, which in turn raises the probability of Federal Reserve tightening. Higher real yields and a stronger dollar reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
‘Investor demand is fading as Exchange-Traded Fund inflows have failed to reappear to defend the market during this recent decline, and macro conditions no longer provide the favourable backdrop that supported gold in recent weeks,’ Valecha said.
He added that bulls have ‘plenty of ammunition in the longer-term, supported by continued central-bank buying, but in the short term, the bias is negative as higher yields, a stronger dollar, diminishing ETF buying, and a higher probability of Fed tightening trump safe-haven demand.’
On the technical side, Valecha said gold ‘remains bearish on the four-hour chart, with negative momentum and a lower-high/lower-low structure.’ He placed the next downside targets at $4,252 and $4,205, with sellers remaining in control below $4,444.
For silver, he said sellers remain in control below $66.04, with a risk of a move toward the 200-period simple moving average at $62.83 and possibly $62.00.
By comparison, spot gold hit a record of $5,594.82 per ounce in late January 2026, according to Reuters. Thursday’s price sits well below that peak, and the 30-year US Treasury bond yield was trading at around 5.2974 per cent as of 10 September, according to CNBC, adding further pressure to long-duration assets including gold.
The next significant test will be whether gold holds above the $4,205 support level Valecha identified, which would signal whether sellers are exhausted or the downtrend has further to run.
